EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Leyton Orient vs Crawley
The hosts have the best home record in the division with W14-D4-L1 this term with dropped points coming when they faced Stevenage, who sit 2nd, Northampton who are currently 4th and then Swindon and Barrow with sit just above midtable and then Newport back in October, where Orient won the xG 1.95 vs 1.25 and the shot count 21 vs 5 whilst hitting the woodwork twice.
No side has conceded fewer goals in than home matches than Orient with just six all season and defensively their underlying metrics are impressive conceding just 2.39 shots on target per home fixture. They have at times struggled to create chances with a xG of just 0.98, but they have found the net regularly with an average of 1.39 goals per home game.
Colchester have struggled for the majority of the season, although results did pick up during Matt Bloomfields short spell in charge. Before he took over their record was W1-D3-L6 having scored just 4 goals and conceded 14, they averaged just 0.4 points per game. During his time as manager, they averaged 1.26 points per game with a record of W8-D5-L10 scoring just over a goal at game. Since he has left, they have lost 3 on the spin without scoring a goal.
Its now five games since they last scored and if you struggle for goals, Orient is the last place you want to go. Over the last four defeats they have failed to register a single shot on target in two of the games with just 11 shots on target in their last six games. Its going to be hard for Colchester to score here.
At home Orient have seen just one game go over 4.5 goals with an average of just 1.72 match goals per game. Of their 13 wins at home, they have scored three or more on just two occasions and they have won 1-0 in 46% of their home victories. Therefore, I am going to take the hosts to win and under 4.5 goals which can be backed at Betway at 4/5.
Millwall vs Huddersfield
Millwall should keep up their play-off push with victory over Huddersfield. Their results at home are often overlooked. People are quick to praise the likes of Sheff Utd and Middlesbrough for their excellent home form, but the Lions have taken just one point fewer than both sides from their home fixtures. At home their have a record of W10-D5-L3, staying unbeaten against Sheff Utd, Boro and Burnley at the New Den. They did recently lost to Norwich at home, but the previous home defeat was against QPR back in September when Rangers were 7th in the league table.
In contrast, Huddersfield have collected just 10 away points this season, the lowest in the division. Their record on the road is W2-D4-L12 with victories over Birmingham and Rotherham at home and QPR and Preston on their travels. Their away form is poor and against the top 10 when in the road their record is W0-D2-L6 having scored just 4 with three of their goals coming at Luton, meaning they have scored just once in the seven other fixtures.
The Terriers underlying metrics for their away performances are poor. 23rd for xG, 20th for xGA. Only two sides have fewer shots, and three sides have fewer shots in the box. Just two sides have conceded more away goals and therefore its no surprise that they sit 22nd for shots and shots on target in the box conceded.
It got desperate from them and they decided to ask Neil Warnock to come out of retirement to try to keep them up. However, despite beating Birmingham, they have lost four of their seven games failing to score in five. I think Warnock will try to keep this tight and not lose the game.
Millwall to win the match and under 3.5 goals is even money with Skybet and Coral and this seems the best way to get the Lions on side. Huddersfield last three games have had a total of three goals and assuming that the away side don’t find the net then this covers any home win up to 3-0 but also 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0.
Millwall win and under 3.5 goals – even money with SkyBet & Coral.
Sunderland vs Luton
Since the turn of the year Luton have lost just twice with runaway leaders winning 1-0 and to WBA who at the time were in an excellent run of form following a change of manager. With the return to domestic football after the World Cup the Hatters have returned W10-D3-L2 and over this 15-game period only Burnley with 39 points and Middlesbrough with 34 points, won more than Luton with 33. This season only Burnley have a better points per game on the road than Luton and no side has conceded fewer goals on their travels. Its no surprise to see them sitting 4th and just a point behind Middlesbrough in 3rd and just seven behind the Blades in 2nd.
The hosts are struggling and have now lost four of their last five games and winning just once in their last five home games. Injuries are playing a huge part as every week their appears to be another injury and manager Tony Mowbray has now a doubt over forward Diallo and O’Nien who can operate in a number of different positions. There is likely to be six 1st team players out for this game. Sunderland have a young team as it is and with some many key players out they are being forced to call on more inexperienced players to fill the gaps.
The Hatters are flying and sit top of the form table over the last five games as they have now won four of the last five games by a score of 1-0. The visitors are so consistent and have an experience squad and with that in mind, I am not sure I can see them losing on Saturday. The hosts took a 1st half lead to Sheffield Utd in midweek, but in the 2nd half they failed to deal with them and ending up losing 2-1 and this has pushed them down to mid-table and it looks like their play off aspirations are slipping away from them. Another defeat here and its pretty much over for them.
We can back Luton 0.0AH meaning that should the game end in a draw we will get our stake back in full, the only way we lose is if the host claim a victory.
Luton 0.0AH at 10/11 with Bet365
