Group 2 of the Nations League has proved far more competitive than expected, and surprise leaders Greece host second-placed Netherlands in a crucial top-of-the-table clash.
Greece’s victory over Serbia was somewhat expected, albeit a hard-fought one, but their win against Germany was certainly a complete surprise. With these two results, the Ethniki are clear leaders and are making a strong early bid for the play-offs.
Their performance against Die Nationalelf was not so much impressive as it was disappointing from the hosts’ perspective. The match could just as easily have ended 0–0, but Greece were extremely fortunate with a deflection that led to the winning goal.
By comparison, the Netherlands were far superior to Germany in their own match, but only managed a draw after finding an equaliser in added time. Therefore, on a good day, the Oranje should be able to beat Greece in at least 9 out of 10 attempts.
However, there is another factor – the Netherlands’ defence has not been in top form for some time, having failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 consecutive matches. Greece have enough creativity to create danger, especially given that this will be their first home match of the tournament.
How the bookies view it: The Netherlands have the edge
Bookmakers are expecting a closely fought match, although they are still giving the visitors a decent advantage.
At the moment, you can back Greece at 9/4, whilst the Netherlands are available at 5/4. A draw is also fairly well priced at 5/2.
Recent head-to-head: Goal difference stands at 24-3 in favour of the Oranje
Greece and the Netherlands have a rich history dating back to the last century, but the statistics heavily favour the Oranje, who have nine wins from 11 matches.
More impressively, they have not conceded a single goal in those nine victories. They have one draw dating back to 1987, whilst Greece’s only victory came in a friendly match in 2016.
Players to watch: Mexx Meerding has earned his place in the national team
The Netherlands continue to lose players to injury, and this is sure to be one of the main talking points once the international break is over. Following Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo is now also out for the remainder of the matches.
Fortunately, national team debutant Mexx Meerdink stepped up straight away and scored the winning brace against Serbia. Xavi doesn’t have much choice at this stage, so I certainly expect to see the 23-year-old AZ Alkmaar player again.
Probable line-ups
Greece: Tzolakis, Tsimikas, Retsos, Mavropanos, Saliakas, Tzolis, Mouzakitis, Androutsos, Karetsas, Douvikas, Pavlidis
Netherlands: Verbruggen, Hato, van Dijk, van Hecke, Timber, Gravenberch, Veerman, Reijnders, van Bommel, Meerdink, Summerville
Anything else catch the eye?
The Netherlands’ defence needs improving, and now the rising number of injured strikers will also certainly boost Greece’s chances of success. In my view, there’s a good chance this match will be one of the most exciting so far, and it’s also a battle for the top spot in the group.
In any case, however, the Netherlands should be the side applying more pressure and creating more chances, and I reckon over 13.5 shots for them is well worth a bet.
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