Last time out was a kick in the teeth. Fylde led until the 90th minute before conceding twice to lose 3-2, with even a draw enough to leave us in profit. Harrogate then conceded in the 96th minute to draw 2-2. It was not our day, but the early National League data has highlighted three more fixtures for Friday night.
Wealdstone host promotion favourites Carlisle United at Grosvenor Vale, Southend United welcome Kidderminster Harriers to Roots Hall and Scunthorpe United face Solihull Moors at Glanford Park. Here are our best National League bets from the latest round of fixtures.
Wealdstone vs Carlisle United
Carlisle United look worth backing to win at Wealdstone after producing the strongest underlying numbers in the National League across the opening three matches.
Carlisle lost 3-2 to Worthing and drew 1-1 at Yeovil despite dominating both games, before their performance levels were rewarded with a 4-1 win over Hornchurch. They have averaged 20.67 shots and 7.33 shots on target per game, both division-high figures, while allowing only 6.67 shots and 3.33 on target.
Those numbers have helped Carlisle record a league-best xG difference of +1.38 per game. The visitors have controlled matches at both ends of the pitch, even when the results have failed to reflect their dominance.
Wealdstone have taken one point from three league games and followed defeats against Harrogate and Worthing with this difficult fixture. Their -0.66 xG difference ranks among the worst in the division, while they have been outshot by an average of 14.67 to 8.33.
Wealdstone have caused problems for stronger sides at Grosvenor Vale before, but the current data points towards an away win. Carlisle have created 12.34 more shots per game than their hosts and possess the strongest process in the league.
- Bet: Carlisle United to win at 17/20 with William Hill
Southend United vs Kidderminster Harriers
Southend United to win and over 1.5 match goals looks the best bet at Roots Hall, where a crowd of more than 8,000 is expected.
Kieron Dyer's side have started with three consecutive victories, beating Altrincham, Scunthorpe and Solihull Moors. They have scored seven goals and conceded twice, with their +0.51 xG difference placing them fourth in the National League after three matches.
Southend have averaged 13 shots and 6.33 shots on target per game, compared with 9.67 shots and four on target conceded. They have also generated nine shots from inside the box per match while allowing six, which supports their perfect start.
Kidderminster Harriers have taken three points from their opening three fixtures, with their only victory coming against Eastleigh. They have averaged 8.67 shots and 2.33 shots on target, while their -0.45 xG difference shows they have struggled to create sustained pressure.
Southend are stronger in every main attacking measure and have already beaten two competitive opponents at Roots Hall and Damson Park. Adding over 1.5 goals offers a better price without requiring the hosts to cover a handicap.
- Bet: Southend United to win and over 1.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
Scunthorpe United vs Solihull Moors
Scunthorpe United look worth backing to beat a Solihull Moors side that has lost its opening three league matches and conceded 10 goals.
The Iron have collected one point so far, drawing with Yeovil before narrow defeats against Southend and Eastleigh. Their -0.20 xG difference is below average, but it remains stronger than Solihull's league-worst mark of -0.87.
Scunthorpe have averaged nine shots and 3.33 shots on target per game, while conceding 10 shots and five on target. Those numbers are unspectacular, but they have remained competitive and lost 1-0 against a Southend side that has won every league match.
Solihull have faced 17.67 shots and 9.33 shots on target per game, both among the worst figures in the division. They have also allowed 14 shots from inside the box per match when playing away, including 25 shots and 13 on target during their 5-2 defeat at Harrogate.
Chris Millington's side showed more promise in their 3-1 loss to Southend, but the defensive numbers remain difficult to ignore. Scunthorpe do not need to dominate this game to win it. Solihull's defence has offered opponents enough chances in every match.
- Bet: Scunthorpe United to win at 3/4 with William Hill
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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