Ukraine meet Northern Ireland at the Anton Malatinsky Stadium in Trnava, Slovakia, on Friday with kick-off scheduled for 19:45. The two countries are level at the top of Nations League Group B2 after collecting four points from their opening two fixtures. Both have scored once, conceded no goals and recorded one win and one draw.
Ukraine began with a 1-0 victory away to Hungary. Danylo Sikan scored the only goal after 42 minutes, while their defence survived 17 shots, 2.03 xGA and 33 opposition-box touches.
Their attacking performance was more efficient. Ukraine created three big chances and generated 1.29 xG from 10 shots despite having 43% possession.
A goalless draw in Georgia followed, but the performance dropped. Ukraine recorded seven shots, two on target and only four touches inside the penalty area. They failed to create a big chance or win a corner while finishing with 0.20 xG.
Northern Ireland also won 1-0 in Georgia before drawing 0-0 with Hungary. Shea Charles scored the winner in Tbilisi in the ninth minute of stoppage time after Michael O'Neill's side produced 12 shots and five efforts on target.
They then created the better opportunities against Hungary despite having 36% possession. Northern Ireland generated 0.99 xG, registered three shots on target and created the game's only big chance. Patrick Kelly missed two first-half opportunities before Isaac Price passed up a late shooting chance.
The schedule has tested Northern Ireland after a six-and-a-half-hour flight to Georgia and an overnight return before the Hungary game. O'Neill felt tiredness affected the closing stages on Monday, although his players now have additional recovery time before facing Ukraine.
How the bookies view it
Ukraine are 19/20, carrying an implied probability of 51.3%. The draw is 5/2, representing 28.6%, while Northern Ireland are 7/2, giving them a 22.2% chance.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/8, implying 42.1%. Under 2.5 goals is 8/13, representing 61.9%.
Both teams to score is available at 11/10, carrying an implied probability of 47.6%.
Head to head: Only one previous meeting
The only previous competitive meeting took place during the 2016 European Championship.
Northern Ireland recorded a 2-0 victory over Ukraine. That result remains the only listed senior meeting between the countries.
Player to watch: Shea Charles set for another battling performance
Shea Charles has been Northern Ireland's leading performer across their opening two Nations League matches.
The midfielder scored the late winner against Georgia before an excellent performance against Hungary. He played the full 90 minutes, recorded six defensive contributions and generated 0.09 xA.
His club performances also show his importance without the ball. Charles has made 46 defensive contributions across 304 minutes this season, including nine interceptions, eight blocked shots, four tackles and 19 recoveries.
He has completed 180 passes at 90% accuracy, with 39 breaking an opposition line. Charles has also created three chances, completed three of his four attempted dribbles and won 54.2% of his duels.
His positioning should be important against a Ukraine side which completed 503 passes at 90% accuracy against Georgia but struggled to turn possession into chances.
Predicted lineups
Ukraine (3-5-2): Trubin, Bondar, Sarapiy, Mykhavko, Zubkov, Pikhalyonok, Nazaryna, Khlan, Mykhaylychenko, Ponomarenko, Vanat.
Northern Ireland (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles, Atcheson, McConville, Ciaron Brown, Hume, Shea Charles, Galbraith, Devenny, Kelly, Price, Donley.
Anything else catch the eye
The results point towards a low-scoring contest. All four Group B2 fixtures have finished under 2.5 goals, producing only two goals in total.
The underlying data presents a different view of both defensive records. Ukraine have allowed 3.0 xGA across their opening matches, while Northern Ireland have conceded 2.9 xGA. Neither side has conceded despite allowing 5.9 combined xGA.
Ukraine have collected four points against an xPTS figure of one, making them the biggest overperformers in the group. They have faced 31 shots and allowed 56 opposition-box touches across their two fixtures.
Northern Ireland's performances have been stronger. O'Neill's side have generated 2.09 xG and recorded eight shots on target, compared with Ukraine's 1.49 xG and five efforts on target.
Ukraine are also playing outside their home country. The Anton Malatinsky Stadium has hosted them before, but the neutral setting reduces the advantage normally reflected in a home price.
Northern Ireland finished World Cup qualifying with three wins from six matches before losing 2-0 to Italy in the play-offs. Ukraine also missed the tournament after a 3-1 defeat against Sweden.
Both teams have responded with unbeaten Nations League starts, but Ukraine's results are stronger than their performances. Northern Ireland have created more, defended with discipline and already won at this venue level in Georgia.
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