Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 2 – Burnley vs Aston Villa – Sunday 10th May at 2pm
Aston Villa head to Turf Moor on Sunday with every reason for confidence against a Burnley side that has been the division's most overwhelmed team across every meaningful metric this season, and with an added edge of urgency following Bournemouth's victory on Saturday that has cut the gap to just three points in the race for European football.
Villa arrive on the back of a stunning 4-0 victory over Nottingham Forest in midweek that secured their place in the Europa League Final, a result that will have done wonders for confidence and momentum throughout the squad.
Having rested key players in the league fixture before that European tie, Unai Emery is expected to field a full strength side at Turf Moor, bringing the quality and depth of a squad operating at the highest level of European football to bear against a Burnley side with nothing left to play for.
Burnley's home numbers are simply the worst in the league. They have won just 17.6% of their home xG battles this season, average just 0.83 xG per game at home across the last eight matches and have created just one big chance in their last four home fixtures.
Their home xPTS of just 1.91 in that period is the lowest figure in the division, and they have not won a home game since mid-October, a run of over six months without a victory at Turf Moor that underlines just how desperate their home form has become.
With European football on the line, Bournemouth breathing down their necks, a full strength squad available and a Burnley side that has been unable to win at home for the best part of seven months, Villa have every reason to get the job done on Sunday.
- Bet: Aston Villa double chance
- Odds: 2/9
- 12.50 units returns 15.27
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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