Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
We landed Bet 3 last night as Manchester United and Brentford delivered for us, keeping the run going.
We got a little lucky last time. Jaden Philogene was not fouled and was subbed off for Jack Clarke, who was then fouled in his excellent cameo performance for the Tractor Boys. With Bet365 super sub promotion this meant that our bet was a winner. We move onto bet 5.
Bet 5 – Leeds vs Burnley – Friday 1st May at 8pm
Leeds double chance, Leeds to score and Leeds over two corners looks a strong multi-angle play built on solid home trends and Burnley’s weak away numbers.
There is also clear motivation for the hosts. Leeds are six points ahead of Spurs, but with tricky fixtures still to come against both Spurs and West Ham, they probably need three more points to feel very confident of avoiding being dragged into the relegation battle. That should sharpen the focus at Elland Road.
Starting with the result angle, Leeds have lost only four of 17 home league games, winning 11 and drawing two. Their home xPTS rank is third in the division, showing performances have supported the results. They have also won the xG battle in 13 of those 17 home matches, another sign they regularly control games on their own ground.
Leeds to score also has strong support. They have failed to score in only five of 17 home fixtures, while Burnley own the weakest away process numbers in the league. Burnley average only 0.76 xG away and 1.84 xGA, with zero away clean sheets all season.
Recent form strengthens that case further. Burnley have won only one of their last 25 matches, losing 17, conceding 2.04 goals per game and scoring only 0.88. They have also just sacked Scott Parker, adding more uncertainty before a difficult trip.
The corner leg looks strong. Leeds have won three or more corners in all 17 home league games, averaging 5.53. Burnley concede 6.18 corners per away game and have allowed three or more in 16 of 17 away fixtures.
Avoid defeat, score once and reach three corners all line up well here.
- Bet: Leeds double chance, Leeds to score and Leeds over 2 corners
- Odds: 1/5
- 21.10 units returns 25.32
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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