Our latest National League betting article focuses on three of Monday's 3pm fixtures, with the early league table and underlying performance data beginning to provide a clearer picture after four games.
Woking welcome a Southend United side looking to respond after their perfect start ended on Friday, while unbeaten Boreham Wood travel to Worthing following an impressive opening to the campaign. Carlisle United also return to Brunton Park against Scunthorpe United, aiming to turn the division's strongest underlying numbers into another home victory.
Results, xG, shot volume and home and away performances all form part of the assessment as we search for the best value on Monday's National League card.
Woking vs Southend United
Southend United travel to Woking with a strong chance of responding to their 3-1 home defeat against Kidderminster Harriers. That result ended their perfect start, but the performance did not warrant a two-goal defeat. Southend had 70% possession, 19 shots and 10 shots on target, compared with seven shots and six on target for Kidderminster.
The wider numbers remain strong. Kieron Dyer's side sit third with nine points and rank second in the division for xGD at +0.75 per game. Their average of 1.99 xG is almost identical to their scoring rate of 2.00 goals, while they have produced 14.5 shots and 7.2 shots on target per match.
Their away record adds further support. Southend have won both league games on the road by a 3-1 scoreline, scoring six times from 27 shots and 12 efforts on target.
Woking have lost three of their opening four matches and failed to score three times. Their +0.13 xGD is better than their league position suggests, but they have averaged only 2.2 shots on target and scored 0.75 goals per game.
Southend possess the stronger attacking process, better results and a perfect away record. At 23/20, an implied probability of 46.5%, the away win offers value.
- Best Bet: Southend United to win at 23/20 with William Hill
Worthing vs Boreham Wood
Few teams have started the National League season as convincingly as Boreham Wood, who head to Worthing on Monday sitting second with 10 points from four games. They remain unbeaten after three wins and a draw, scoring 11 goals and conceding five.
Their performances support those results. Boreham Wood rank third for xGD at +0.96 per game, recording 1.82 xG and allowing only 0.86 xGA. They have scored 2.75 goals per match, which shows some attacking overperformance, but their chance creation remains among the strongest in the division.
Boreham Wood average 17.2 shots and six shots on target, while opponents have managed only 7.8 shots and 2.5 on target. Their two away games produced wins over Halifax Town and Forest Green Rovers, with six goals scored and one conceded. They averaged 12 shots to 8.5 conceded across those fixtures and allowed only 1.5 shots on target per game.
Worthing have won two and lost two, but their underlying numbers raise concerns. Their -0.57 xGD is built on 1.46 xG and 2.03 xGA, while they have been outshot by an average of 18 to 12.2.
The 10/13 price implies a 56.5% chance of an away win. Boreham Wood hold a clear advantage in results, xGD, shot volume and defensive control.
- Best Bet: Boreham Wood to win at 3/4 with Unibet
Carlisle United vs Scunthorpe
Brunton Park hosts Carlisle United against Scunthorpe United on Bank Holiday Monday, with the home side's league position failing to reflect their performances across the opening four matches.
Carlisle sit 15th after one win, two draws and one defeat, but they lead the National League with a +1.01 xGD per game. They have produced 2.09 xG and allowed 1.08 xGA, while their scoring rate of 2.00 goals is closely aligned with the quality of chances created.
The shot data provides an even stronger case. Carlisle average 17.8 shots to 8.2 conceded, with seven efforts on target per game. Their two home matches have produced averages of 26 shots, 9.5 shots on target and 17 shots inside the box. Opponents have managed only 7.5 shots, four on target and six inside the box.
Scunthorpe arrive after beating Solihull Moors 3-1, but they have lost both away matches. Their overall -0.06 xGD is based on 1.32 xG and 1.38 xGA, while they have allowed an average of 12.5 shots, six shots on target and 10 attempts inside the box away from home.
Carlisle still need to turn their dominance into consistent wins, but the process remains the strongest in the division. The 5/6 price implies a 54.5% chance, which looks reasonable given the scale of their home advantage.
- Best Bet: Carlisle United to win at 5/6 with Unibet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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