Arsenal ended their 22-year wait for the Premier League title last season, finishing seven points clear of Manchester City on 85 and lifting the trophy for the first time since 2003/04. Mikel Arteta's side recorded 26 wins and the best goal difference in the division, with defensive control playing as important a role as their attacking output.
City remained in contention until the closing weeks without getting close enough to stop them, while Liverpool finished fifth and only qualified for the Champions League because of England's strengthened UEFA coefficient. That coefficient provides an extra European place this season, changing the shape of the qualification race before a ball is kicked.
West Ham United, Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers were relegated, with Hull City, Coventry City and Ipswich Town replacing them.
Managerial change has been another major theme, with eight Premier League clubs appointing new managers, a new divisional record. Pep Guardiola has left Manchester City after almost a decade and been replaced by Enzo Maresca, who must also cope without Rodri following his move to Barcelona. Liverpool have appointed Andoni Iraola after his spell at Bournemouth.
There have also been changes among the promoted clubs. Gary O'Neil has replaced Kieran McKenna at Ipswich, while Frank Lampard and Sergej Jakirovic remain in charge after leading Coventry and Hull to promotion. Nottingham Forest have appointed Oliver Glasner from Crystal Palace, with Pierre Sage leaving Lens to replace him at Selhurst Park. Bournemouth, Fulham and Newcastle United have also changed managers, making continuity a genuine advantage for the clubs that retained theirs.
European football creates another challenge for several teams outside the traditional big six. Aston Villa's Europa League victory earned them a return to the Champions League, although Youri Tielemans, Lucas Digne and Morgan Rogers have since left, Ezri Konsa is expected to join Arsenal and Ollie Watkins continues to attract interest.
Bournemouth and Sunderland have qualified for the Europa League for the first time, where they will be joined by Crystal Palace following their Conference League success. Brighton and Hove Albion complete the nine English clubs in Europe with their own Conference League campaign.
The effect of those additional fixtures is supported by recent history. Across the past four seasons, clubs outside the big six that qualified for Europe dropped an average of 5.67 league positions during the following campaign, with Aston Villa the only exception.
Sunderland face the biggest challenge after earning European qualification in their first season following promotion. Brighton and Bournemouth also have squad-depth concerns, while Palace enter the Europa League without the continuity Glasner provided.
Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have the opposite schedule, with neither involved in Europe. Leicester City won the title in 2015/16 without continental football, while Chelsea did the same one season later, showing the advantage a clear midweek schedule provides.
Spending has also accelerated across the division. Chelsea's net outlay of around £194m is the largest in the league, ahead of Tottenham at approximately £159m, while Arsenal and Manchester City have added to established squads rather than rebuilding them.
Ipswich have spent most aggressively among the promoted clubs, moving beyond £160m while continuing to add depth and quality. Coventry have largely retained the group that won the Championship, while Hull enter the season with the smallest squad value of the promoted three.
Hull's underlying Championship numbers also raise concerns. They finished 14th for xPTS, 16th for xG ratio and 23rd for xGA, but still secured promotion through the play-offs. They have since struggled to attract players capable of improving the squad before stepping into a much stronger division.
The bets
Hull City to finish bottom at 11/8 with Betway
Hull's squad value of £123m is less than half that of either fellow promoted club, while their net summer spend of around £30m is also the smallest of the three.
A separate xPTS assessment ranked them 17th of 24 Championship clubs, creating the largest gap between results and underlying performance in the division. Their play-off promotion therefore looks flattering when measured against the quality of their performances.
Sergej Jakirovic remains largely untested in English football and has received limited support in the transfer market. My model has Hull finishing bottom in most simulations, comfortably above the 42% probability implied by 11/8.
Arsenal to win the Premier League at 6/5 with Bet365
Arsenal retain the core of last season's title-winning squad and have added Bruno Guimaraes and Christos Tzolis to a group that already contained two options in most positions. Their 3-0 Community Shield victory over Manchester City provided another encouraging sign before the league campaign.
My model gives Arsenal an 86% chance of retaining the title, compared with the 45% implied by 6/5, which is the biggest difference between my assessment and the market across these selections.
There has been some pundits who have opposed Arsenal at the price, arguing that City were not far behind last season and that Arteta's side might place greater emphasis on Europe after losing the Champions League final. Those concerns help explain why the price remains available, but neither changes the strength of Arsenal's overall position. They were one of the best sides in Europe last season and have added to a very good squad.
Arsenal and Manchester City to finish in the top two, in either order, at 3/1 at BetVictor
Arsenal's title credentials cover one part of this selection, while Manchester City remain the clearest alternative despite losing Guardiola and Rodri. Maresca inherits a squad that beat Arsenal twice last season, including in the EFL Cup final, and City still possess more depth than most of the division.
My model gives Arsenal and City a 43% chance of occupying the top two positions in either order, compared with the 25% implied by odds of 3/1.
Chelsea represent the main threat to this bet. Xabi Alonso's side finished tenth last season but ranked fifth for xPTS, and there is no doubt that they could challenge for a top-three finish. That makes City's position less secure than Arsenal's, although the price still compensates for the risk.
Ipswich Town to finish as the top promoted club at 11/8
Coventry's decision to rely largely on last season's Championship-winning squad creates questions about whether the group is strong enough for the Premier League. There is also uncertainty over whether Frank Lampard's coaching will translate successfully to this level. Coventry remind me a lot of Ipswich two years ago believing that they could compete and that did not go well for the Tractor Boys – the step up ability, power and pace is vast.
Ipswich have taken a different approach, spending more than £160m with their total moving towards £200m as the window closes. Their new signings have improved the squad both quality and physical profile, whilst adding Premier League experience.
Ipswich's squad value of £217m is already above Coventry's £233m, while Hull remain well behind both. My model expects Ipswich's investment to move them closer to the established sides above the promoted clubs, giving them a realistic chance of avoiding relegation as well as winning this market.
Fulham to be relegated at 11/2
Fulham already have a shorter squad list than many of their likely rivals, while their overall market value sits below much of the division. The summer's managerial and personnel changes strengthen the case for relegation.
Marco Silva's departure for Benfica ended three seasons of stability, with Alvaro Arbeloa arriving after only 28 matches of senior managerial experience during a caretaker spell at Real Madrid. He now faces a demanding Premier League job without the established structure Fulham had under Silva.
Sasa Lukic, Issa Diop, Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez have also left, representing a significant loss of experience and quality rather than a controlled squad refresh.
My model gives Fulham a 24.9% chance of relegation, against the 15% implied by odds of 11/2 and a wider market assessment closer to 14%. Several other previews have also selected Fulham for relegation based on the same concerns, making this one of the most consistently supported positions in the market.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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