MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.
This midweek sees me focus on the Saudi Pro League, La Liga and the EFL Cup.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Few fixtures on this week's card show a bigger statistical gap. Al Nassr have recorded an npxG ratio of 0.67, the strongest figure among every team assessed, while Al Ittifaq sit well behind at 0.43. The same pattern appears across total shots, shots on target and attempts from inside the box, with Al Nassr creating more opportunities and giving considerably less away.
The bookmakers have already recognised that difference by pricing Al Nassr at 3/10, implying a 76.9% chance of winning, so this is not a case of finding a major market error. It is instead a short-priced selection where the form, underlying numbers and market assessment all agree. Al Nassr to win is one of the safest-looking legs available.
Al Taawon's statistical advantage is not dramatic, but it is strong enough to support them at home. Their npxG ratio stands at 0.49 compared with Al Feiha's 0.42, showing a slightly better balance between chances created and conceded before home advantage is included.
Odds of 4/5 imply a 55.6% chance of an Al Taawon victory, which looks close to a fair reflection of the available data. Al Taawon to win looks a strong bet.
A home npxG ratio of 0.61 gives Ipswich a clear advantage over Leicester, whose away figure sits at only 0.36. That difference has been created by Leicester conceding more chance quality than they have produced on the road, while Ipswich have entered the opposition box and generated attempts from dangerous areas more regularly at Portman Road.
Ipswich are 6/11 to win, implying a 64.7% chance, but the price is supported by more than home advantage and the difference in league status. Their underlying numbers are stronger across the most relevant venue splits, while the depth created by their summer spending should help if both managers rotate. Cup ties always bring some uncertainty around team selection, but Ipswich to win carries enough statistical support to justify its place on the card.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon & Ipswich all to win at 2/1 with 10Bet
Preston's early home numbers provide the strongest reason for backing Everton at Deepdale. Their npxG ratio stands at only 0.31, one of the weakest home figures across the entire set, while their shots-on-target ratio shows the same lack of attacking threat.
Everton's overall npxG ratio of 0.46 as they saw off Crystal Palace 2-0 at the weekend. Everton are priced at 6/11, implying a 64.7% chance of winning, which is short enough to require caution around possible rotation. Preston's home process has offered little encouragement, though, making Everton to win the logical selection.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich & Everton all to win at 4/1 with 10Bet
Real Madrid's opening performance produced 2.71 non-penalty xG against 1.05 conceded away at Espanyol, giving them an npxG ratio of approximately 0.72. Their control was also evident in a 37-10 advantage for touches inside the opposition box, showing how regularly they reached dangerous areas.
Real Sociedad started with a home defeat against Real Betis and recorded an npxG ratio of 0.48, while also conceding more shots on target than they produced. One match remains a small sample, but the difference between the two opening performances is difficult to ignore. Real Madrid are priced at 37/100, implying a 73% chance of winning, and their underlying numbers support that status rather than leaving the selection dependent on reputation alone. Real Madrid to win is another short-priced but well-supported accumulator leg.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich, Everton & Real Madrid all to win at 6/1 with 10Bet
Barcelona's 5-0 victory at Elche was backed by the strongest underlying performance in this set, with 3.59 non-penalty xG created and only 0.70 conceded. That produced an npxG ratio of approximately 0.84, alongside seven shots on target to two and an 87% passing accuracy.
Athletic Club were beaten 3-1 at Sevilla, although their performance was better than the scoreline suggests. They generated 1.26 non-penalty xG against Sevilla's 1.37, leaving them with a ratio close to 0.48 despite limited shot volume. Athletic therefore carry more threat than their opening result implies, but Barcelona's data remains comfortably stronger. Priced at 37/100 and carrying an implied win probability of 73%, Barcelona to win rests on a convincing opening performance rather than the size of their reputation.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich, Everton, Real Madrid & Barca all to win at 9/1 with 10Bet
Charlton's away npxG ratio of 0.22 is among the weakest figures found anywhere on this week's card, built on limited shot volume and a lack of end product when they have reached attacking areas. Tottenham were very poor against Brentford, but Charlton's road numbers provide a clear enough reason to oppose them.
The main concern is the price rather than the selection. Tottenham are 1/4, implying an 80% chance of winning, which leaves little room for rotation or another disjointed performance from a side still adapting to major summer changes. Charlton's results have been better than their away process, but this is a difficult fixture for that overperformance to continue. Tottenham to win is supported by the quality gap and the visitors' weak attacking data.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich, Everton, Real Madrid, Barca & Spurs all to win at 11/1 with 10Bet
Every match involving Southampton or West Ham this season has finished with at least three goals, giving over 2.5 a perfect four-from-four record across the relevant fixtures.
Southampton also hold the stronger result-based numbers, with a home npxG ratio of 0.59 compared with West Ham's away figure of 0.44. The hosts are 17/11 to win, implying 39.3%, giving them a genuine case at a much bigger price than the goals selection. Southampton to win and over 2.5 goals looks likely given recent form.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich, Everton, Real Madrid, Barca, Spurs & Southampton to win with over 2.5 match goals all to win at 42/1 with 10Bet
The largest npxG ratio gap on the entire card appears at Ewood Park, where Sheffield United's away figure of 0.68 sits well above Blackburn's home return of 0.38. A difference of 0.30 is significant at any price, but it becomes particularly interesting when the statistically stronger side is available at odds against.
Blackburn's home shot output has also been poor, while Sheffield United have created and restricted chances at a much stronger rate on their travels. The visitors are priced at 8/5, implying only a 38.5% chance of winning, which looks low compared with the size of the underlying advantage. Early-season samples always require caution, but Sheffield United to win stands out as the strongest value selection.
Al Nassr, Al Taawon, Ipswich, Everton, Real Madrid, Barca, Spurs, Sheffield Utd & Southampton to win with over 2.5 match goals all to win at 110/1 with 10Bet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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