The play off semi-finals move into the decisive second legs this week with all the ties still wide open.
Southampton host Middlesbrough with the Championship tie still level after a tense first leg at the Riverside. The match now shifts to St Mary’s where both sides carry strong attacking metrics and know a breakthrough is required to avoid extra time.
Stockport return to Edgeley Park holding a narrow aggregate lead over Stevenage. The hosts have been strong at home all season and now face a side whose away attacking numbers have consistently lagged behind the rest of the play off field.
At Meadow Lane, Notts County protect a one goal advantage against Chesterfield despite being heavily second best in the first leg by most underlying measures. The setup now points towards a far more open contest, with Chesterfield needing to attack and Meadow Lane regularly producing high scoring matches.
Each tie enters the second leg with different pressures and game states shaping the likely tempo.
Southampton vs Middlesbrough
Southampton host Middlesbrough at St Mary's Stadium on Tuesday evening in the second leg of their Championship play off semi final, with the tie level at 0-0 after a first leg heavily overshadowed by Spygate following Southampton's EFL charge for allegedly spying on a Middlesbrough training session.
Southampton arrive unbeaten across their last 20 matches and know they must find a breakthrough at home to avoid extra time. Across the last eight games they rank ninth in the Championship for xPTS with 12.23 while averaging 1.84 xG per game across the last four. Their home record of W12-D8-L3 highlights how strong they have been at St Mary's throughout the campaign.
Middlesbrough arrive carrying some of the strongest recent underlying numbers in the division. Kim Hellberg's side rank second in the Championship for xPTS across the last eight matches with 14.04 while averaging 2.22 xG per game during that period.
Their away record of 10 wins, eight draws and five defeats also reflects a side comfortable playing away from home, while Hellberg described the first leg as Middlesbrough's best performance since arriving in England.
Over 2.5 goals stands out strongly from the data. Middlesbrough have averaged 2.09 xG per game across their last four matches while also producing 11.25 shots inside the box per game, the highest figure in the Championship. Their seven big chances created during that spell also ranked first in the division.
Southampton should contribute heavily as well. Across the last four matches they have averaged 29.50 touches inside the opposition box per game, the highest figure in the Championship, while their xG average of 1.84 combined with Middlesbrough's xGA of 1.04 points towards strong attacking potential.
The combined projected game total from the recent data sits at 2.92 expected goals, comfortably above the over 2.5 line.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Stockport County vs Stevenage
Stevenage travel to Edgeley Park on Wednesday evening in the second leg of their League One play off semi final against Stockport County, carrying a 1-0 advantage after Ben Osborn's stoppage time winner at the Lamex Stadium on Saturday.
Dave Challinor's side finished third in League One with 77 points despite an xPTS total of only 64.53, meaning they outperformed the underlying numbers by more than 12 points across the season. Their home record of W13-D4-L6 highlights how strong they have been at Edgeley Park, averaging 1.79 xG per game while conceding 1.28.
They have also averaged five shots on target and 9.09 shots inside the box per home match, underlining how consistently they create chances in front of their own supporters.
Stockport's away form was the strongest of any play off side during the regular season and they now return home with both momentum and an aggregate lead to protect.
Stevenage arrive facing the exact scenario their away numbers suggested could become a problem. Steve Evans' side finished sixth with 75 points and an xPTS total of 65.20, but their away record remained one of the weakest among the play off teams. They won only seven of 23 away matches, losing 11, while posting a 35% away failed to score rate. Their away xG average of 1.03 and xGA of 1.33 further highlights the imbalance.
The first leg followed a similar pattern. Stevenage generated only 0.27 xG, managed six shots in total and failed to create a single big chance. They now travel to Edgeley Park needing a victory despite losing both previous meetings with Stockport this season, including a 2-1 defeat at home in February and a 3-1 defeat away in December.
Stockport return home with the aggregate lead against a Stevenage side carrying the weakest away attacking numbers of any play off team and still without a win in this fixture all season. The underlying data consistently points in one direction.
- Best Bet: Stockport win at 10/11 with Skybet
Notts County vs Chesterfield
Meadow Lane hosts the second leg of this League Two play off semi final on Friday evening with Notts County protecting a one goal lead after a highly unconvincing first leg display at the SMH Group Stadium. The tie remains firmly alive and the conditions for goals look strong heading into the return match.
Notts County home games averaged 3.04 total goals per match during the regular season, the highest figure of any ground in League Two. Their home both teams to score rate of 61% ranked among the strongest in the division and they failed to score in only 13% of home fixtures. T
hey also created 28 big chances at Meadow Lane across the season, joint second highest in the league, while their home non penalty xG average of 1.96 was the strongest of the four play off teams.
Chesterfield arrive after dominating the first leg across almost every important underlying metric. They generated 1.45 xG compared to Notts County's 0.24, finished with eight shots to two, struck the woodwork and missed a penalty inside the opening five minutes. Their away failed to score rate of only 9% was joint lowest in League Two and they scored in every away game against fellow play off sides during the season.
Recent form also strongly favours Chesterfield. Across the last six matches they posted a points per game average of 2.33, the strongest of the four play off teams, and remain unbeaten during that spell.
Notts County's recent process numbers are significantly weaker. They rank 19th in League Two for xPTS across the last four matches with only 4.05, while their big chance differential during that period stands at two created and six conceded. Their open play xG in the first leg was only 0.24 from two shots and even Martin Paterson admitted afterwards he would be foolish to think the tie is already decided.
Chesterfield have little option other than to attack from the opening whistle while Meadow Lane consistently produces high scoring games. With the first leg data heavily favouring Chesterfield and both sides likely needing goals at some stage, over 2.5 goals looks one of the strongest angles in the League Two play offs.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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