Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
We completed the challenge last time out and how route to 1,000 can be found here: MFT 10 – 1000 Betting Challenge: Complete: This is how we did it. We have now won our last 23 bets across the two challenges.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 1 saw Cardiff score in the 2nd half and the game end 1-1. The hosts generated 2.92 xG with 27 shots with seven on target.
Bet 2 – Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion – Wednesday 9th September at 7:45pm
West Bromwich Albion have scored in all five Championship matches and should create enough chances to continue that run at Pride Park.
Albion have registered eight league goals, averaging 1.24 xG and 4.4 shots on target per game. Their attacking record has also travelled. They scored twice at Charlton Athletic and found the net at Middlesbrough, producing 1.43 xG per away match.
Derby County’s defensive numbers provide the strongest support for the selection. They have conceded 10 goals in five games and allow 2.19 xGA per match, the second-worst average in the Championship. John Eustace’s side have kept one clean sheet, which came at Portsmouth despite allowing 1.43 xG.
The numbers become weaker at Pride Park. Derby have conceded five goals across two home fixtures while allowing 2.63 xGA, 9.5 shots on target and 12.5 attempts inside the box per game. Swansea City created 3.00 xG during a 3-0 win here, while Cardiff City generated 2.26 in a 2-2 draw.
Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at West Ham United extended Derby’s run without a clean sheet to three matches. West Brom responded to their defeat at Middlesbrough by beating Watford 1-0, with the result maintaining their record of scoring in every league appearance.
Albion do not need to be clinical to find one goal. Their consistent scoring record meets a Derby defence allowing high-quality chances and substantial shot volume. Derby no clean sheet is the selection.
- Bet: Derby no clean sheet
- Odds: 2/9
- Bank: 12 units returns 14.66
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware