We landed another three winners last time out as attention now turns to the play off semi finals across the EFL.

Saturday’s first legs bring four sides chasing Wembley, with each matchup carrying very different profiles heading into the weekend.

Middlesbrough host Southampton at the Riverside in what looks the most open tie of the Championship semi finals. Both sides arrive with strong attacking numbers, high recent xG output, and enough quality in the final third to create chances consistently.

Bolton face Bradford with both teams carrying strong both teams to score trends into the League One play offs. Bolton’s home games have regularly lacked defensive control, while Bradford continue to offer a reliable threat away from home.

Stevenage take on Stockport in a matchup that profiles very differently. The hosts built their season on defensive structure and control at the Lamex Stadium, where they have been one of the hardest sides in the division to break down.

Each tie brings different dynamics, from open contests driven by attacking quality to controlled games shaped by defensive strength.

Middlesbrough vs Southampton

Middlesbrough host Southampton in the first leg of their Championship play off semi final at the Riverside Stadium on Saturday lunchtime, with a 12.30pm kick off between two sides carrying strong attacking numbers into the play offs.

Middlesbrough arrive with some of the strongest recent underlying numbers in the Championship despite mixed results. Across the last eight matches they rank second for xPTS with 14.04, averaging 2.22 xG per game while conceding only 1.22 xGA. Across the last four games they have created seven big chances, the highest total in the division, while conceding only one.

Their home record of W12-D6-L5 highlights how effective they have been at the Riverside throughout the season. The 2-2 draw at Wrexham on the final day was not ideal preparation for the play offs, but their attacking process has remained consistently strong during the run in.

Southampton finished fourth on 80 points and at one stage put together a 19 game unbeaten run before momentum slowed slightly late in the campaign. The end the campaign with a 3-1 win at Preston, but failure to hold onto three points at home to Ipswich four days earlier meant they were destined for the play offs. Their underlying numbers remain solid. Across the last eight games they rank ninth in the Championship for xPTS with 12.23, while averaging 1.84 xG per game across the last four fixtures.

Their away record of W10-D6-L7 shows they are comfortable playing on the road and their attacking numbers remain among the strongest in the division.

Both teams to score is strongly supported by the data. Southampton are averaging 29.50 touches inside the opposition box per game across the last four matches, the highest figure in the Championship during that spell, while Middlesbrough's defensive numbers still leave room for chances despite recent improvement.

At the other end, Middlesbrough are averaging 2.09 xG per game across the last four matches and Southampton's xGA of 0.88 suggests they are not defensively untouchable.

Both teams to score has landed in three of the four Championship meetings between the sides. The projected game total sits at 2.92 goals across the last four matches and rises to 3.29 across the last eight, pointing strongly towards chances and goals at both ends.

• Best Bet: Both teams to score at 4/5 with Betway

Bolton Wanderers vs Bradford City

Bradford travel to Bolton on Saturday evening in the first leg of their League One play off semi final, with a place at Wembley and Championship football on the line across both ties.

Bolton arrive as the bookmakers' favourites for promotion yet their season has been built more on avoiding defeat than consistently winning. Steven Schumacher's side won only 19 of their 46 league games while drawing 18, more than any other play off side. Their xPTS total of 79.96 was the highest in the group, suggesting the underlying quality is stronger than the league table alone implies.

At home they averaged 1.82 xG per game, generating 5.36 shots on target and 10.86 shots inside the box per match. The issue is defensive reliability. Bolton conceded in 83% of home games and kept clean sheets in only 30% of those matches. They drew 15 home fixtures and lost only two.

Bradford arrive in strong form after winning four of their final eight league matches. Graham Alexander's side finished level on points with Stockport and their away numbers remain dangerous. They scored in 74% of away fixtures while their away both teams to score rate of 65% was the third highest in League One.

Bradford average 3.77 away shots on target per game and create 6.41 shots inside the box on their travels.

The case for both teams to score is strongly supported by the numbers from both sides. Bolton's home both teams to score rate is 65%. Bradford's away both teams to score rate is also 65%. Bolton failed to score in only 17% of home games while Bradford failed to score in 26% of away matches.

Both teams scored in 12 of Bradford's 23 away games and 15 of Bolton's 23 home matches. Every major metric points towards goals at both ends.

• Best Bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 with Ladbrokes

Stevenage vs Stockport County

The other side of the League One play off draw sees Stevenage and Stockport County go head to head with the first leg at the Lamex Stadium.

Stevenage finished sixth but their home numbers are among the strongest in the division. Alex Revell's side built their season around the Lamex Stadium, winning 14, drawing seven and losing only two of their 23 home league matches.

Their xPTS total of 65.20 understates the strength of their defensive structure. A PDO above 1,000 reflects a side that has consistently been difficult to break down rather than fortunate. At home they averaged 3.64 shots on target per game while conceding only 1.86. Their shots inside the box numbers also underline their control, averaging 6.64 for and only 4.09 against.

Stevenage kept 13 home clean sheets, a 57% return and the best record in League One. Their home xGA of 0.71 is also the lowest of any play off side. They failed to concede at home in more than half their matches.

Away from home their form is less convincing with seven wins, five draws and 11 defeats, though this first leg takes place at the Lamex where Stevenage are a completely different proposition.

Stockport arrive as third placed semi finalists whose league position looks stronger than some of the underlying data suggests. Dave Challinor's side posted an xPTS total of 64.53 and managed only one win in 10 matches against top six opposition throughout the season.

Away from home they won nine, drew seven and lost seven, though they average only 2.95 shots on target per away game. Their away xG of 1.19 against an xGA of 1.29 leaves them in negative territory on the road.

Crucially, Stockport failed to beat Stevenage in either league meeting this season. Stevenage won 2-1 at the Lamex in February and followed it with a 3-1 win at Edgeley Park in December.

The first leg is at the Lamex and the defensive numbers strongly suggest it is the hardest ground in League One to visit.

• Best Bet: Stevenage win at 19/20 with Bet365

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