Argentina face Bolivia in the first of their three scheduled friendly matches during the current international break, and this fixture could offer an initial glimpse of what La Albiceleste will look like without Lionel Messi.
The Argentinian legend will play one final match in front of the home fans at the Estadio Monumental next week against Benin. However, he will not be in the squad for the matches against Bolivia and Burkina Faso, which means we will see a completely new dynamic within the team.
This is unlikely to worry the World Cup runners-up at the moment, given the friendly nature of the fixture and the modest opposition. Still, sooner or later the differences will become apparent.
However, purely for the record, La Albiceleste’s last home loss was in 2023, before their current run of 20 consecutive matches without defeat.
Bolivia are 77th in the world rankings and have little to boast about in recent years, particularly against Argentina. With nine defeats in their last 12 matches and their goal drought in the last three, it is hard to expect anything special.
How the bookies view it: Only one way this match ends
As you’d expect, La Albiceleste are such massive favourites that there are hardly any odds to work with. At the moment, you can back them at around 1/10.
It makes far more sense to look for an upset, although the chances of that happening are practically unthinkable. Bolivia are available at 25/1, whilst a draw is priced at 9/1.
Recent head-to-head: A painful 6-0 in Bolivia’s last visit
As I hinted at above, La Verde do not have many positive memories of their recent encounters with Argentina. Their last victory came in 2017, and it is their only one since 2009.
La Albiceleste have won nine of their last 10 H2Hs, with the last four being by a margin of at least three goals. The last time Bolivia played on Argentinian soil, they lost 6–0.
Players to watch: Martinez’s time to be a leader
It is time for Lautaro Martinez to take up the baton and lead Argentina to future successes. Only time will tell what this major change will bring, but with 40 goals in 84 appearances for the national team, Martinez is certainly the man from whom we can expect great things.
He is clearly finding his form again, having scored four goals in his last three matches for Inter Milan. I expect him to score at least one against Bolivia, as he has already done three times over the years.
Probable line-ups
Argentina: Rulli, Tagliafico, Martinez, Romero, Giay, Mac Allister, Fernandez, Gonzalez, Paz, Simeone, Martinez
Bolivia: Viscarra, Arroyo, Haquin, Morales, Medina, Melgar, Cuellar, Villamil, Fernandez, Miguel, Nava
Anything else catch the eye?
The odds aren’t particularly impressive, but Argentina keeping a clean sheet certainly looks like the best option at the moment. Bolivia haven’t scored in their last three matches, and in their last 10 away fixtures they’ve scored just two goals whilst suffering 10 defeats.
In Argentina’s recent World Cup matches, we’ve seen a recurring pattern where La Albiceleste needed time to warm up before dominating in the second half. That’s why I’m backing over 1.5 goals in the second half, without risking anything on the first 45 minutes.
GambleAware