Most League One teams have played seven matches, with Reading and Oxford United on six. The sample remains limited, but it already shows several differences between results and performances. We have compared actual points with expected points, goals with xG and goals conceded with xGA. Open-play and set-piece figures reveal where each team’s threat is coming from.
Shots, efforts on target, attempts inside the box and big chances help separate poor finishing from weak attacking play. The same measures show which defensive records result from strong chance prevention and which rely on opponents failing to score.
Bradford City lead League One with 15 points, but their expected total is 9.32. They have conceded four goals from 7.22 xGA, giving them a defensive overperformance of more than three goals.
Bradford’s defensive process still contains several positives. They allow only 2.1 shots on target and six attempts inside the box per game. Their results overstate their advantage, but their ability to restrict opponents provides a solid foundation.
Cambridge United have 12 points from 8.20 xPTS and have scored 12 goals from 8.39 xG. They concede more shots, xG and big chances than they create. Their early position depends heavily on finishing.
Leyton Orient provide a stronger warning. They have scored 13 goals from only 6.50 xG, the largest finishing overperformance in League One. They average 10.4 shots compared with 15.4 against and allow 10 attempts inside the box per game. Their 10 points exceed 6.30 xPTS, while both their attacking and defensive figures suggest weaker performances than the table shows.
Oxford United have also relied on outcomes at both ends. They have scored 13 goals from 7.59 xG and collected 11 points from 7.35 xPTS. Opponents average 16.8 shots and 13.2 attempts inside the box against them. Oxford have conceded seven goals from 10.07 xGA, combining attacking overperformance with a better defensive return than expected.
Reading and Huddersfield Town look like the division’s strongest teams beneath the results.
Reading average 2.17 xG and 0.88 xGA. Their 1.73 open-play xG is the best figure in League One. They also produce 17.3 shots, 12.5 attempts inside the box and 4.2 big chances per game.
Huddersfield have 12 points from a league-high 13.99 xPTS. They have scored 11 goals from 15.13 xG and lead the division with 4.43 big chances per game.
Their 0.54 open-play xGA is the lowest figure in League One. Huddersfield also allow only 2.4 shots on target and 6.1 attempts inside the box per match. Their fourth-place position understates the quality of their performances.
Wigan Athletic and Peterborough United are the largest underachievers.
Wigan have scored five goals from 11.11 xG and collected four points from 9.40 xPTS. Peterborough have scored four from 10.78 xG and taken five points from 9.66 xPTS.
Poor finishing explains much of their position, although Peterborough still allow 10.1 shots inside the box and five efforts on target per game. Their defensive process provides less reason for confidence than their attacking xG.
Luton Town have conceded 14 goals from 7.44 xGA. They allow 10.7 shots and 1.6 big chances per match, while their eight points sit below 12.21 xPTS. Their results should improve if the rate at which opponents convert chances falls.
Bromley and Blackpool have deeper defensive problems.
Bromley allow 17.9 shots, 12.3 attempts inside the box and eight shots on target per game. Their 1.56 open-play xGA is the worst figure in the division.
Blackpool concede 19 shots, 6.7 efforts on target and 4.7 big chances per match. They have allowed 14.75 xGA across seven games, so their defensive problems reflect the quality and volume of chances conceded.
Huddersfield lead League One for set-piece xG at 0.73 per game. Wigan have the worst set-piece defence at 0.61 xGA, while Bromley combine the poorest open-play defence with a set-piece xGA of 0.60.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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