Two winners from our three bets last time out delivered a profitable round, with Boreham Wood and Carlisle United winning while Southend United settled for a draw at Woking.
Saturday's focus starts at Roots Hall, where Southend host unbeaten Yeovil Town. Hartlepool United look to end three successive defeats against Woking, while Scunthorpe United return from their loss at Carlisle to face Harrogate Town.
Five matches provide an early picture rather than firm conclusions. This week's selections weigh xG and shot data against results, league position and the latest match reports, examining where performances support the scorelines and where they tell a different story.
Southend United vs Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town take an unbeaten record to Roots Hall for Saturday's early kickoff, sitting one point above Southend United after five matches. Both sides have scored in every league appearance, making both teams to score at 4/5 a more suitable approach than choosing a winner.
Southend average 1.81 xG and have scored nine goals, closely matching their chance creation. Yeovil have scored 10 from an average of 1.40 xG, a less sustainable scoring rate but still enough underlying output to give them a threat.
The defensive figures support opportunities at both ends. Southend allow 1.26 xGA per game, while Yeovil concede 1.54 xGA despite allowing only five actual goals. Both have kept one clean sheet, with both teams to score landing in four of five matches for each side.
Southend's draw at Woking exposed the risk of backing them to win. Harry Cardwell opened the scoring from the penalty spot, but Joe Duncan's saves were important in preserving a point after Aiden O'Brien equalised.
Yeovil's victory over Tamworth brought three goals and a missed stoppage time penalty. It also included two goals conceded and a late Tamworth equaliser disallowed for offside. Their unbeaten start has not depended on consistently shutting opponents out.
Yeovil's finishing above xG remains a reservation, while Southend's latest goal came from a penalty. Across the full sample, both attacks have scored regularly and both defences have allowed chances. Both teams to score at 4/5 keeps the selection focused on those shared characteristics.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 4/5 with Betway
Hartlepool United vs Woking
Hartlepool United approach Saturday looking to end three successive defeats, while Woking travel after taking a point from Southend United. Neither side has scored freely across the opening five rounds, making under 2.5 goals at 19/20 the preferred angle.
Hartlepool have scored four and conceded four, with four of their five matches finishing below the line. Woking have also scored four, failing to find the net in three games. Three of their five fixtures have produced fewer than three goals.
The xG figures offer qualified support rather than an overwhelming case. Hartlepool average 1.25 xG and Woking 1.37, suggesting both have scored less than their opportunities warranted. Woking's 1.21 xGA is more encouraging for the selection, pointing to better defensive performances than their nine goals conceded suggest.
The latest reports also show why low scores need scrutiny. Hartlepool hit the bar at Halifax Town and forced saves from True Grant after falling behind. Woking created chances against Southend, with Joe Duncan making several saves before protecting the draw late on.
Those incidents prevent treating either attack as ineffective. They also underline the distinction between creating opportunities and consistently converting them, something neither side has managed across five matches.
The case rests on modest attacking averages, Woking's underlying defensive record and seven under 2.5 finishes across the teams' 10 appearances. Under 2.5 at 19/20 is supported by the broader scoring pattern, with improved finishing the clearest threat.
- Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 19/20 with Bet365
Scunthorpe United vs Harrogate Town
Scunthorpe United return to Glanford Park after conceding four at Carlisle United, with their defensive record providing the starting point for Saturday's goals selection. They have conceded in all five league games, allowing 10 goals, and now face a Harrogate Town side whose matches have produced 22 goals.
The underlying figures support an attacking contest. Scunthorpe allow 1.80 xGA per game against Harrogate's 1.81 xG, giving the visitors a favourable matchup. Scunthorpe also generate 1.59 xG themselves and recorded 18 shots, eight on target, during their defeat at Brunton Park. Their two goals were supported by opportunities rather than isolated moments.
Harrogate arrive after beating Gateshead, although the manner of their victory needs context. They conceded to a wind assisted goalkeeper clearance, equalised through a deflection and won through a late own goal. More relevant to this selection were their 16 shots against three, including five on target.
Both teams have scored in every Harrogate league match, with all five also clearing 2.5 goals. Scunthorpe have recorded both teams to score in four of five, although only three have produced at least three goals.
Harrogate's 1.20 xGA provides the main reservation, suggesting a stronger defence than their nine goals conceded implies. Scunthorpe's attacking output at Carlisle still gives them a credible route to scoring. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 is the selection, requiring both attacks to contribute and avoiding reliance on either side winning.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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