We landed another two winners last time out, keeping momentum strong heading into a huge final day. Saturday’s EFL schedule comes with everything on the line, with promotion, play off places, and season defining results still to be decided.
Wrexham host Middlesbrough in one of the standout fixtures of the day. Both sides need victory, which should create an aggressive game state. Wrexham’s home matches regularly produce goals, while Middlesbrough arrive with strong away attacking numbers and their own promotion hopes still alive.
Hull face Norwich with the hosts needing three points to keep play off hopes alive. Hull’s games at the MKM Stadium have been open all season, while Norwich arrive in strong form and scoring freely away from home.
Swindon meet Chesterfield with the final League Two play off place at stake. Swindon must win, Chesterfield know a draw is enough, and that setup should force tempo, risk, and attacking intent from the opening whistle.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Wrexham welcome Middlesbrough to the Stoke Cae Ras on Saturday lunchtime, in what is one of the biggest matches on the final day with huge stakes for both clubs, and over 2.5 goals with both teams to score looks a strong bet.
Wrexham start the day in sixth place but know Hull and Derby are close enough to punish any slip. That means the hosts are unlikely to take a cautious route. Their home record is W14-D0-L8 and those matches average 3.36 goals, the highest figure in the division.
The hosts have scored 39 home goals at 1.77 per game, while both teams to score has landed in 73% of those fixtures. They also average 12.18 shots, 4.41 shots on target and have created 21 big chances at home, so they bring steady attacking threat.
Middlesbrough arrive with major motivation of their own. A win, combined with defeats for Millwall and Ipswich, would still hand them automatic promotion. That should force an attacking approach from the visitors.
Boro own a W12-D1-L9 away record. Their road games average 2.86 goals and they score 1.64 goals per away match. They also average 14.5 shots and 4.5 shots on target, while creating 21 big chances away from home.
Recent numbers strongly support this angle. Across the last eight matches, the combined total xG for this fixture is 6.01, one of the highest on the card, with 38 combined big chances. Across the last four, the combined xG still sits at 5.38.
Wrexham have looked less secure defensively of late, allowing 1.57 xGA across the last eight games and keeping only two clean sheets in that spell. If they commit men forward chasing points, space should appear for Middlesbrough. If Boro strike first, Wrexham will need to respond.
With both clubs needing victory, both attacks carrying clear threat, and neither side likely to settle for a low tempo draw, this game looks set up for chances at both ends.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score at 19/20 with William Hill
Hull City vs Norwich City
Everything points toward an open and urgent contest when Hull City host Norwich City in the Championship at the MKM Stadium, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looking the standout bet.
Hull know only a win gives them any chance of reaching the play-offs, so the hosts have little choice but to attack. That should create a higher tempo game from the start. Hull home matches have produced 66 goals in 22 games, an average of 3.00 per match, with 59% going over 2.5 goals. Their home record is W12-D0-L10, which highlights plenty of positive results but limited control.
Defensively, Hull have looked vulnerable for some time. They have kept only two clean sheets in their last 15 games and concede 1.50 goals per home match. They have also allowed 26 big chances at the MKM Stadium, one of the highest totals in the division.
Norwich arrive in strong form under Philippe Clement. Since his appointment, only Coventry, Ipswich and Southampton have collected more points. Norwich have failed to score only five times in that spell, with three blanks coming against Ipswich, Southampton and Middlesbrough.
Their away form has been excellent. Norwich’s last 10 road matches read W8-D0-L2, with defeats only to Southampton and Middlesbrough. Across those 10 games they have scored 21 goals and conceded seven. For the season they average 1.59 away goals, while away fixtures produce 2.77 total goals per game.
Recent numbers strengthen the case. Hull’s last four matches show both teams to score in 100% and over 2.5 goals in 75%. The combined recent total xG for this fixture is 4.88. Hull average 10.82 shots and 3.77 shots on target at home, while Norwich post 10.7 shots and 4.3 shots on target away.
With Hull forced to chase victory, Norwich carrying strong attacking momentum, and the hosts struggling for clean sheets, this game looks ideal for goals at both ends.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score at 10/11 with Ladbrokes
Swindon Town vs Chesterfield
This fixture is one of the headline fixtures in League Two with the final play-off place on the line. The equation is simple. Swindon must win to break into the top seven, while a draw or Chesterfield victory sends the visitors through. That scenario alone points towards an open game and makes over 2.5 goals a strong angle.
Swindon have no option but to attack. Sitting back serves no purpose, so tempo and intent should be high from the first whistle. Their home matches average 2.75 goals, while they have scored in 19 of 22 league games at the County Ground. That reliability in front of goal is important given the stakes.
The hosts also carry threat through volume. They average 10.82 shots and 4.27 shots on target at home, while recent numbers show they have seen 3.69 total xG across the last four games and 4.18 across the last eight. Defensive control has been less convincing, allowing eight shots in the box per game across the last eight.
Chesterfield arrive knowing a draw is enough, but they are unlikely to spend 90 minutes camped on their own box. The visitors have scored in 20 of 22 away league games and their road matches also average 2.75 goals. That points to a side capable of contributing to the total.
Their recent form is solid too. Chesterfield have taken 17 points from the last eight games, posting 13.02 xPTS in that run. They average 1.25 xG and only 0.92 xGA over the same spell, while creating eight big chances. If Swindon overcommit, the visitors have enough quality to punish space in transition.
Game state is another major factor. If Chesterfield score first, Swindon must chase harder. If Swindon lead, Chesterfield need a response to avoid relying on other outcomes. Either route increases attacking risk.
With both teams strong scorers in these specific home and away splits, both averaging 2.75 total goals in those matches, over 2.5 goals stands out as the best bet.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with William Hill
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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