Two from three last weekend, winners at 7/5 and 1/1, and the numbers behind round three are throwing up some genuinely striking gaps once you dig past the table.
At the EnviroVent Stadium, Harrogate Town sit top of the pile after two rounds and welcome a Barrow side still hunting their first point back in the National League. The underlying picture here is even more one sided than the early table suggests.
Damson Park hosts a fixture between two sides heading in completely opposite directions, Solihull Moors yet to find any control in either of their opening games, against a Southend side whose away numbers from their first road trip of the season make for genuinely uncomfortable reading if you're on the home end.
And at Kingfield, Woking's search for a permanent manager continues to show up in the data as much as the results, a home performance so far that's produced almost nothing in the final third, against an AFC Fylde side quietly building four points from two games without ever looking troubled.
Three fixtures, three sides of the underlying numbers worth knowing before kickoff. Here's what they say.
Harrogate Town vs Barrow
The EnviroVent Stadium hosts Saturday's early kick-off as unbeaten league leaders Harrogate Town face a Barrow side still searching for their first point since returning to the National League.
Harrogate have made the strongest possible start following a heavily funded summer rebuild, beating Solihull Moors 5-2 before recording a 3-1 victory over Wealdstone. Barrow have moved in the opposite direction, losing 2-0 at Hartlepool and 2-1 at home to Hornchurch despite being expected to challenge for the play-offs following relegation from League Two.
The underlying numbers support the early table. Harrogate rank second in the division for xG difference at +0.85 per game, while their only home fixture produced 14 shots from inside the box. That level of attacking output shows their eight goals have been supported by the quality and volume of chances created.
Barrow produced only two shots from inside the box during their opening away match and conceded three, while their defence has allowed four goals across two fixtures.
Two games remain a limited sample, but Harrogate have combined strong results with convincing underlying performances. Barrow have shown little attacking threat and remain vulnerable defensively, making the hosts the stronger selection.
- Best Bet: Harrogate -0.25AH at 17/20 with Bet365
Solihull Moors vs Southend United
Damson Park hosts two teams that have started the season in contrasting form. Solihull Moors have lost both matches, going down 5-2 against Harrogate before suffering a 2-0 home defeat to Boston United, while Southend have collected six points from six.
Southend came from behind to win 3-1 at Altrincham before producing a controlled 1-0 victory over Scunthorpe. Those results provide an encouraging start for a squad rebuilt around Kieron Dyer's new coaching structure, with their performances supporting the positive scorelines.
Southend rank fourth in the National League for xG difference at +1.01 per game. Their opening away fixture produced 12 shots from inside the box and only four conceded, showing a clear advantage in the most dangerous areas.
Solihull's home data points in the opposite direction. They created only one shot from inside the box against Boston and conceded eight, while their overall xG difference of -1.54 per game is the second-worst figure in the division.
The sample remains small, but the gap between the sides is already significant. Southend have created chances, restricted opponents and converted their control into two victories, while Solihull have struggled at both ends. The visitors are the preferred selection.
- Best Bet: Southend to win at 17/20 with William Hill
Woking vs AFC Fylde
Woking's difficult start has been shaped by problems on and off the pitch. The club remain without a permanent manager following Jermain Defoe's departure before the season began, with defeats against Sutton United and Gateshead leaving them without a point or a goal.
AFC Fylde arrive after collecting four points from their opening two matches. They drew 2-2 at home to Wealdstone before winning 2-1 at Tamworth, providing a promising start for a side that was among the strongest teams in National League North last season.
Woking's home attacking data is the biggest concern. They failed to record a single shot from inside the box during their opening match at Kingfield, showing an almost complete lack of threat despite playing in familiar surroundings.
Fylde created seven shots from inside the box during their first away fixture. That figure is not exceptional on its own, but it compares favourably with a Woking side that has failed to score across 180 minutes and remains without a settled managerial structure.
Fylde are adjusting to a higher division, which introduces some uncertainty, but their performances have been far more encouraging. Woking are struggling for direction and attacking output, making the visitors the stronger option based on the evidence from the opening two rounds.
- Best Bet: Fylde +0.25AH at 33/40 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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