Saturday delivered a perfect return, with all three selections winning to complete a 3/3 clean sweep.
The fixture list is more restricted this midweek, with the Championship providing the only league action across the EFL. That leaves fewer matches to work with, but there are still several interesting differences between the early results, the underlying data and the prices available.
Our three selections take us to Pride Park, the Cardiff City Stadium and the Racecourse Ground. Derby County face West Bromwich Albion after contrasting weekend results, Stoke City attempt to transfer their impressive home result on Saturday onto the road against Cardiff City, and winless Burnley visit a Wrexham side that has made an encouraging start.
Each selection has been assessed using xG, xGA, xPTS, venue splits and recent chance creation. The aim is to identify where the early scorelines may be disguising stronger or weaker performances underneath
Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion
Derby County return to Pride Park on Wednesday night looking for a response after Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at West Ham, but West Bromwich Albion arrive having restored some stability with a 1-0 victory over Watford. The result market is difficult to separate, making the goals line the more attractive option.
Four of Derby’s five Championship fixtures have contained at least three goals. Their only exception was a 2-0 win at Portsmouth, a result built on two goals from just 0.55 xG rather than sustained attacking control.
The concern is at the other end. Derby have allowed 2.19 xGA per match, the second-worst average in the division, and that rises to 2.63 across their two home appearances. Swansea created 3.00 xG in a 3-0 win here, while Cardiff generated 2.26 during a 2-2 draw.
West Brom have scored in every league game, including during their 3-1 defeat at Middlesbrough. Their away matches have averaged 3.50 goals, with over 2.5 landing on each occasion. A 2.59 away xGA shows that those high totals have not been driven by finishing alone.
My model gives over 2.5 goals a 68% chance, comfortably above the 50% implied by even money. Derby’s vulnerable defence provides the clearest route, while West Brom’s own defensive numbers leave room for the hosts to contribute.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 13/14 with Unibet
Cardiff City vs Stoke City
Stoke City travel to the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday after producing the weekend’s most emphatic Championship result, beating Charlton Athletic 4-0. Cardiff return home following a 2-0 defeat at Portsmouth, but the scorelines create a misleading contrast when the relevant venue data is examined.
Cardiff were competitive at Fratton Park, generating 1.37 xG from 13 attempts inside the penalty area and two big chances. They failed to convert, but that was their first blank in five league matches rather than evidence of a recurring attacking problem.
Stoke’s victory was supported by 2.14 xG, although it came at home against a Charlton side that created only 0.61. Their away record is far less convincing. They have lost both Championship trips, conceding seven goals against Southampton and Wolves while allowing 2.49 xGA per game.
Cardiff average 1.33 xG at home and are yet to fail to score there. Their two fixtures in Wales have also produced 26 shots inside the box, giving them a platform to test a defence that has struggled badly on the road.
My model gives Cardiff a 63% chance of winning, compared with the 46.3% implied by odds of 116/100. Stoke’s latest result demands some caution, but one strong home performance does not remove the weaknesses shown in their away defeats. Cardiff’s chance production and home advantage make them the selection at an attractive price.
- Best Bet: Cardiff City -0.25AH at 9/10 with Unibet
Wrexham vs Burnley
Burnley arrive at the Racecourse Ground on Tuesday still searching for their first Championship victory, while Wrexham have lost only once across their opening five matches. The market makes the hosts narrow favourites, but the underlying home and away numbers suggest the gap should be wider.
Wrexham followed a 3-0 win at Millwall with a goalless draw at Swansea on Saturday. They allowed only 0.74 xGA in that stalemate and restricted Swansea to three attempts on target, continuing a defensive record that is the best in the division by xGA.
At home, Wrexham have generated 1.65 xG per match while conceding chances worth 1.08. They have scored in both appearances at the Racecourse, collecting a draw against Watford before losing narrowly to Birmingham City.
Burnley’s problems continued with a 2-1 home defeat against Bristol City. The Clarets created only 0.26 xG, managed four shots inside the box and failed to register a big chance. That followed a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough in which their attacking output reached just 0.68 xG.
Their away record offers little reassurance. Burnley have collected no points on the road, average 1.06 xG and allow 1.77 xGA, with seven goals conceded across defeats at West Brom and Norwich.
My model rates Wrexham at 59%, above the 48.8% implied by 21/20. Burnley have scored in every match, so this is unlikely to be comfortable, but Wrexham’s defensive control and the visitors’ continuing decline make the home win the selection.
- Best Bet: Wrexham -0.25AH at 4/5 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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