Midweek brought a welcome return to form, with two winners from our three National League selections. Southend United’s 3-1 victory over Tamworth delivered the goals, while Boreham Wood continued their unbeaten start with a 2-1 win at Scunthorpe United. Sutton United’s meeting with Eastleigh was the only disappointment, a 2-1 home win taking the game beyond the line.
The quick turnaround gives us another full programme to assess, beginning under the Friday night lights at Huish Park. Yeovil Town host a Solihull Moors side lifted by their first league victory of the season, although one improved result must be balanced against the wider performance data.
Saturday’s card includes two fixtures with strong scoring trends. Tamworth’s matches have produced 36 goals in eight rounds, but Wealdstone’s away record presents a different test from their midweek home defeat. At Meadow Park, unbeaten Boreham Wood welcome Harrogate Town in a meeting between two of the division’s strongest attacking sides.
Recent results provide the starting point, but the selections are again built around xG, shot volume, venue splits and the sustainability of each team’s finishing. With several sides playing twice in four days, the challenge is separating reliable patterns from numbers shaped by a small and demanding run of fixtures.
Yeovil Town v Solihull Moors
Friday night’s National League fixture brings together two sides whose defensive records point towards chances at both ends. Yeovil Town host Solihull Moors after drawing 1-1 at Aldershot Town, while the visitors arrive following their first league victory of the season.
Yeovil have scored in seven of their eight matches, with both teams finding the net on seven occasions. Five games have also produced at least three goals. Their four home fixtures have contained 15 goals, an average of 3.75, with Yeovil scoring eight and conceding seven.
The underlying figures support another open game. Yeovil average 1.26 xG and allow 1.59 xGA. They have scored 1.75 goals per match, leaving their finishing 0.49 above xG, but Solihull’s defensive record provides a favourable matchup.
The visitors concede 1.73 xGA and 2.38 actual goals per game. They allow 13 shots and 6.6 shots on target, while all three of their away fixtures have seen both teams score. Two of those games also cleared 2.5 goals.
Tuesday’s results require context. Yeovil produced only six shots at Aldershot, but five were on target. Solihull beat Barrow 1-0 despite losing the shot count 7-6, ending a run of seven matches without a clean sheet. Barrow also finished with 10 players.
Across their 16 combined matches, both teams have scored 13 times. The shared xG and xGA figures point towards a projected total above three goals. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 offers enough room for Solihull’s latest result without treating one clean sheet as a defensive recovery.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Bet365
Tamworth v Wealdstone
Tamworth return home on Saturday still searching for their second league victory, but their matches have offered a reliable source of goals. Wealdstone make the trip after a narrow home defeat against Halifax Town, with both sides looking to respond after losing in midweek.
Every Tamworth fixture has produced both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals. They have scored 14 times and conceded 22 across eight matches, creating an average of 4.50 goals per game. Their three home fixtures have finished 3-3, 3-2 and 2-2.
Tamworth’s attacking numbers show their contribution is not built only on finishing. They average 1.69 xG, 14.4 shots and 5.4 shots on target. At home, their volume rises to 20.7 shots and 7.3 on target per match.
Their defence remains the main driver of the selection. Tamworth concede 1.74 xGA and 6.9 shots on target per game. Southend United recorded 16 attempts and eight on target during Tuesday’s 3-1 win, although Tamworth still scored for the eighth consecutive match.
Wealdstone were restricted to four shots and two on target in their 1-0 defeat against Halifax. Their wider away record carries more weight. They have scored seven goals across four trips, finding the net against Fylde, Sutton United and Boston United.
Wealdstone average 1.34 xG and concede 1.51 xGA. Combining those figures with Tamworth’s profile produces an estimated match total above three goals.
The 8/11 price is shorter than the other selections, but it reflects a combination which has landed in every Tamworth match. Both teams retain a clear route to scoring, while neither defensive process supports confidence in a low total.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
Boreham Wood v Harrogate Town
Two of the National League’s strongest early performers meet at Meadow Park on Saturday. Boreham Wood remain unbeaten after winning 2-1 at Scunthorpe United, while Harrogate Town travel after suffering their second defeat of the season against Fylde.
Boreham Wood have collected 20 points from eight matches, scoring 19 goals. Harrogate sit four points behind after scoring the same number. Both average 2.38 goals per game and have failed to score only once between them.
The goals pattern is almost identical. Both teams have scored in seven of eight fixtures for each club, with seven also clearing 2.5 goals. Boreham Wood’s three home matches have produced 12 goals, and both sides have scored at least twice in every game.
Boreham Wood’s underlying process remains one of the strongest in the division. They average 1.72 xG and allow 1.04 xGA, giving them a +0.68 xGD. At home, they produce 18.7 shots and 7.3 shots on target per match.
Harrogate also carry a strong attacking profile. Their averages stand at 1.83 xG, 14.1 shots and 6.9 shots on target. Tuesday’s 2-1 defeat against Fylde brought 13 attempts and seven on target, suggesting the result understated their attacking performance.
Boreham Wood’s midweek win provided further support. They recorded 12 shots to Scunthorpe’s eight and scored twice for the seventh time this season.
There is regression risk because both sides are finishing above xG, while their defensive numbers are stronger than the results suggest. The repeated shot volume, scoring record and lack of clean sheets still support both attacks contributing. At 4/5, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals remains a viable selection.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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