Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 7 – Brentford vs Crystal Palace – Sunday 17th May at 3pm
Over 1.5 goals stands out as one of the strongest goal based selections on Sunday's card at the Gtech Community Stadium. The underlying numbers and recent trends both point heavily towards a game producing at least two goals.
Brentford's home games have averaged 2.78 goals across the season and 14 of their 18 home fixtures have seen over 1.5 goals land. Their recent numbers strengthen the case further. Seven of their last eight home matches have averaged 2.50 goals and every one of those seven games produced at least two goals.
Brentford have also scored two or more goals in three of their last four at home, highlighting a side continuing to generate strong attacking output. Their home non penalty xG of 1.69 and home both teams to score rate of 75% further supports the attacking profile.
Palace's away numbers add even more weight. They have kept only one clean sheet across their last 11 away matches and 10 of those 11 games produced at least two goals.
Across their last 10 away fixtures the average total goals figure sits at 3.0 per game while they are conceding 2.10 goals on average. Palace have also conceded three goals in each of their last three away matches.
Brentford's strong home attacking process combined with Palace's defensive issues away from home creates a strong case for over 1.5 goals landing comfortably.
- Bet: Over 1.5 match goals
- Odds: 2/9
- 38.86 units returns 47.49
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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