EFL Betting Tips: Championship Play offs

The Championship play-off line-up is now set after a final day that delivered on every level.

Hull City’s 2-1 win over Norwich City pushed Sergej Jakirovic’s side into sixth, edging out Wrexham, who were held 2-2 by Middlesbrough. That draw was enough for Boro to secure their own top-six place, completing a play-off field of Millwall, Southampton, Middlesbrough and Hull.

Millwall face Hull, while Southampton meet Middlesbrough.

Southampton arrive with the strongest form profile. Tonda Eckert’s side are unbeaten in 19 and look the most likely of the four to join Coventry City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League.

Millwall bring a different case. They finished third, are unbeaten in five and were the Championship’s best away side across the season. Middlesbrough arrive with momentum after surviving the final-day pressure, while Hull enter as outsiders, but dangerous ones.

The head-to-head record adds edge. Southampton failed to beat any of their three play-off rivals in six attempts. Hull, despite finishing sixth, beat every other play-off side away from home.

Fixtures

The schedule is set for the Championship play-offs, with four clubs now two games away from Wembley and one win away from the Premier League.

Hull City host Millwall in the first semi-final on Friday night at the MKM Stadium. Hull scraped into sixth on the final day, while Millwall finished third and carry the stronger league position into the tie. The return leg takes place at The Den on Monday night.

Middlesbrough host Southampton in Saturday’s early kick-off at the Riverside. Boro sealed their place late on the final day, while Southampton enter as the form side after a 19-game unbeaten run. The second leg follows on Tuesday night at St Mary’s.

The market makes Southampton favourites at 15/8, with Middlesbrough next at 2/1. Millwall are 9/4, while Hull City are outsiders at 7/1.

Those prices suggest Southampton are rated strongest overall, but with two-legged ties and contrasting styles across all four clubs, margins look tight. Wembley awaits on the 23rd May.

Southampton

Southampton enter the play-offs as favourites, and the wider numbers explain why. Tonda Eckert’s side are unbeaten in 19 matches, have taken 14 points from their last six, and won five of their last six away games. Over the last 10 fixtures they posted 26 points, 2.6 per game, the best recent return in the division.

Their season profile is strong. Southampton finished fourth on 80 points, scored 82 goals and averaged 1.68 xG per game, the best attacking output of the four play-off clubs. They ranked third in the home table with 44 points and fourth away with 36, showing balance across both venues. Defensively, their 48.1 xGA was the best figure of any play-off side. A PDO of 1,023 against expected PDO of 1,027 suggests performance levels were earned rather than driven by variance.

The concern is clear. Against top-six opposition they went W1-D5-L4, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Their only win came away at champions Coventry. At St Mary’s they failed to beat any top-six side, drawing with Coventry, Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough, while losing to Hull.

Against the three other play-off clubs their combined record was W0-D2-L4, with five goals scored and 13 conceded. They did not beat Millwall, Middlesbrough or Hull across six meetings.

The semi-final with Middlesbrough looks awkward. Southampton drew 1-1 at home and lost 4-0 at the Riverside, conceding five goals across the two matches. With the first leg away, that recent evidence matters.

If they progress, Millwall offered a slightly better match-up than Hull City, who beat Southampton twice this season. Southampton have the best momentum, but their record against elite Championship opposition remains the key question.

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough finished fifth on 80 points, level with Southampton, and their underlying numbers make a strong case. They averaged 15.31 shots per game, the highest of any play-off side, created 56 big chances and conceded only 47 goals. Their 42.0 xGA was the best defensive process in the group. A PDO of 997 points to a side whose output broadly matched performance levels.

Their away strength stands out. Middlesbrough were third in the away table with 38 points and lost only five road matches all season.

The concern is timing. Across the last 10 games they collected only 11 points, the weakest recent return of the four play-off teams. That run included two wins, five draws and three defeats. Their last six home games brought only seven points, so momentum is not as strong as rivals.

What offsets that issue is their record against the other play-off sides. Middlesbrough went W3-D1-L2 against those clubs, scoring 13 and conceding five. No other side in the field matched that goal difference.

Against semi-final opponents Southampton they drew 1-1 away and won 4-0 at home. Against Millwall they lost 2-1 at home but won 3-0 away. Against Hull City they lost 1-0 at home but won 4-1 away.

That split suggests a team especially dangerous in higher-level matches, even if occasional home slips remain. With the first leg against Southampton at the Riverside, where they already won 4-0, the draw suits them. At 2/1 outright, Middlesbrough look one of the strongest contenders in the bracket.

Millwall

Millwall finished third on 83 points, the highest placing of the four play-off clubs, but their data profile is unusual. Their expected points total was 65.55, creating a gap of almost 14.5 points between results and process. Their PDO of 1,029 also ran above an expected 1,013, while a 91.0% save rate from their goalkeeper was the best among the play-off sides. Their expected goal difference of only +4 was the lowest in this group.

The split between home and away form is the key to understanding Millwall. They topped the Championship away table with 41 points, going W11-D8-L4 on the road. At home they ranked only sixth with 42 points.

That pattern carried into elite opposition. Against top-six teams at The Den they went W1-D1-L3, losing to Coventry, Middlesbrough and Hull. Away against top-six sides they went W2-D2-L1, beating Middlesbrough and Hull, drawing at Southampton and Ipswich, with the only loss at Coventry.

Against semi-final opponents Hull City the tie is perfectly balanced. Millwall won 3-1 away at the MKM Stadium, while Hull won 3-1 at The Den. One win each, four goals each.

That makes the first leg away less of a concern for Millwall than for most sides. Their away record is their biggest strength. The second leg at home is less straightforward, given Hull have already won there and Millwall’s home numbers against strong opposition have been weaker.

Recent form is solid. They are among the best sides over the last five matches and conceded only two goals in that stretch. At 9/4 outright, Millwall have a strong route built on away quality, but whether they can handle decisive home moments remains the central question.

Hull City

Hull City are the outsiders at 7/1, and the season-long numbers explain why. They finished sixth on 73 points, seven behind Southampton and Middlesbrough, and 10 behind Millwall.

Their goal difference was only +4, they lost 15 matches, and their expected points total of 54.87 suggests a major gap between results and underlying process. A PDO of 1,040, well above expected 1,011, points to strong finishing and goalkeeping performance across the campaign.

Yet Hull City are more than a spreadsheet case. After battling relegation a year earlier and operating under transfer restrictions, they still reached the top six under Sergej Jakirovic.

The most important data is their record against these specific rivals. Hull went W4-D0-L2 against the other play-off sides, the best return in the group. They beat Millwall 3-1 away, Southampton home and away, and won 1-0 away at Middlesbrough. They beat every play-off opponent at least once.

The semi-final with Millwall is finely balanced. Hull lost 3-1 at home in the league, then won 3-1 at The Den. That makes the first leg at the MKM Stadium less clear-cut than standard home advantage suggests.

If Hull avoid defeat in the first leg, they travel to a venue where they have already won and where Millwall’s home record against stronger sides has been mixed.

Should Hull reach Wembley, Southampton would not welcome them. Hull beat Saints twice this season, scoring five goals across those meetings. At 7/1, Hull are outsiders, but their head-to-head profile gives them a stronger chance than league position alone suggests.

Best Bets

• Southampton to be promoted at 2/1 with Boylesports
• 1st Leg: Hull vs Millwall – under 2.5 goals at Bet365
• Hull & Southampton final at 9/2 with Bet365

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