We did it. What started with a 10-unit bet on Argentina to beat Egypt has ended with the MFT 10-1,000 Betting Challenge reaching its target. The final bet took us to Portman Road, where we backed Julio Enciso to be fouled at least once against Liverpool. One foul was all we needed.
It completed a run of 22 winning bets without a single losing selection, although there were a few refunds, one void and several moments when the challenge looked in serious danger.
The aim from the start was simple. Use the data to find short-priced selections we believed had a strong probability of landing, compound the returns and see if we could turn 10 units into 1,000.
Mission accomplished.
| # | Selection | Odds | Stake | Return | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Starting bank | — | — | — | £10.00 |
| 1 | Argentina to beat Egypt | 1/3 | £10.00 | £13.33 | £13.33 |
| 2 | Hakimi 1+ shot vs France | 2/9 | £13.33 | £16.29 | £16.29 |
| 3 | Tielemans 1+ shot vs Spain | 3/10 | £16.29 | Void | £16.29 |
| 4 | France vs Spain, both teams carded | 2/5 | £16.29 | £22.80 | £22.80 |
| 5 | England vs Argentina, both teams carded | 1/4 | £22.80 | £28.50 | £28.50 |
| 6 | France vs England, over 1.5 goals and France to score | 1/5 | £28.50 | £34.20 | £34.20 |
| 7 | Spain vs Argentina, Argentina 1+ card and over 1.5 match cards | 2/9 | £34.20 | £41.80 | £41.80 |
| 8 | St Patrick's Athletic DNB vs Derry | 2/7 | £41.80 | Refund | £41.80 |
| 9 | Celtic to beat Dundee | 1/5 | £41.80 | £50.16 | £50.16 |
| 10 | Viking vs Sarpsborg, over 2.5 goals | 1/3 | £50.16 | £66.88 | £66.88 |
| 11 | Porto to win and under 7 goals | 1/4 | £66.88 | £83.60 | £83.60 |
| 12 | Wolves DNB vs Blackburn | 1/5 | £83.60 | Refund | £83.60 |
| 13 | Norwich to score vs West Brom | 1/5 | £83.60 | £100.32 | £100.32 |
| 14 | Lyngby vs Midtjylland, over 2 goals | 2/9 | £100.32 | Refund | £100.32 |
| 15 | Wrexham 1+ card and over 5 match corners vs Cardiff | 1/5 | £100.32 | £120.38 | £120.38 |
| 16 | Arsenal to beat Coventry | 9/50 | £120.38 | £142.26 | £142.26 |
| 17 | Middlesbrough to score vs Blackburn | 2/9 | £142.26 | £178.76 | £178.76 |
| 18 | Goteborg vs Elfsborg, over 1.5 goals | 1/4 | £178.76 | £223.45 | £223.45 |
| 19 | Fulham vs Chelsea, over 0.5 goals and over 2.5 cards | 2/9 | £223.45 | £273.10 | £273.10 |
| 20 | Manchester City DNB vs Crystal Palace | 1/4 | £273.10 | £341.37 | £341.37 |
| 21 | Watford vs West Ham, over 1.5 goals | 1/5 | £341.37 | £409.64 | £409.64 |
| 22 | Chelsea vs Brighton, over 1.5 goals | 2/9 | £409.64 | £500.67 | £500.67 |
| 23 | Arsenal to score, double chance and 2+ corners vs Aston Villa | 2/9 | £500.67 | £611.93 | £611.93 |
| 24 | Cheltenham vs York, over 1.5 goals | 1/4 | £611.93 | £764.91 | £764.91 |
| 25 | Middlesbrough to score vs Burnley | 1/5 | £764.91 | £917.89 | £917.89 |
| 26 | Enciso to be fouled 1+ times vs Liverpool ✓ | 1/4 | £917.89 | £1,147.36 | £1,147.36 |
It started with Argentina
Bet 1 came at the World Cup, with Argentina backed to beat Egypt at 1/3. The numbers made a strong case.
Argentina were rated 406 Elo points above Egypt, had a 71.2% neutral win probability and were averaging 1.92 xG per game while allowing only 0.54 xGA.
That first winner turned 10 units into 13.33 and gave us the foundation to build from.
The World Cup provided the first six winners, but one of the most important parts of the challenge was never restricting ourselves to one competition.
Once domestic football returned, we followed the data.
Selections came from the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two, as well as the Scottish Premiership, League of Ireland, Norwegian Eliteserien, Portuguese Primeira Liga, Danish Superliga and Swedish Allsvenskan.
A challenge built on data
Every bet started with the same question: what does the data tell us?
We used xG and xGA, shots, shots on target, big chances, goals, cards, corners, referee numbers, home and away splits and individual player statistics.
My model also played an important role, particularly when assessing goal probabilities and identifying where the underlying numbers supported a selection.That did not always lead us towards the obvious favourite.
The challenge featured match winners, goals, cards, corners, draw no bet, Asian goal lines, Bet Builders and player props.
Sometimes the strongest bet was simply for a team to score. On other occasions, removing the draw or taking an Asian goal line gave us additional protection.
The route was clear. Find the strongest statistical angle and build the bet around it.
We needed some late luck
Going through the entire challenge without a losing bet sounds comfortable. It was anything but. Viking vs Sarpsborg was one of the biggest scares.
We backed over 2.5 goals with my model putting the probability at 68%. Viking had seen at least three goals in all six of their home league matches, while five of Sarpsborg's eight away games had also gone over 2.5.
The match produced 42 shots, 11 shots on target and a huge 5.4 xG. Yet we still needed a 95th-minute penalty to get the third goal.
Wolves against Blackburn was another important moment. We had backed Wolves draw no bet rather than taking them to win. A late penalty rescued the draw and returned our stake.
It was a perfect example of why market selection mattered throughout the challenge. Had we simply backed Wolves to win, the run would have been over.
Norwich then made us wait until the 90th minute for the goal we needed against West Brom.
There was more late drama in Sweden. Over 1.5 goals had landed in 16 of Goteborg's previous 17 league matches, a 94% hit rate, and all eight of their previous home games. We still needed Elfsborg to score in the 90th minute to get us over the line.
The data put us in strong positions. Football made us work for them.
Enciso finishes the job
After starting at the World Cup and travelling through leagues across Europe, the challenge finished at Portman Road. Ipswich hosted Liverpool and our final selection was Julio Enciso to be fouled at least once.
It was another bet driven entirely by the numbers. Enciso had drawn at least one foul in 18 of his previous 19 relevant appearances. Across 1,346 minutes, he had been fouled 33 times, an average of 2.21 per 90. We only needed one.
Enciso drew the foul, Bet 22 landed and the MFT 10-1,000 Betting Challenge was complete.
10 units to more than 1,000
There were refunds. There was a void. There were 90th-minute goals and a 95th-minute penalty. But there was not a single losing selection. More importantly, there was a reason behind every bet.
We did not get from 10 units to more than 1,000 by continually backing the biggest favourite on the coupon. We used the data and my models. We moved between countries, competitions and betting markets looking for the strongest statistical angle available.
Twenty-two winning bets later, we got there.
10 units. 1,000+ units. Challenge complete.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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