Sky Super 6 Challenge predictions: More goals at the Bridge as Chelsea back line is undone again

We already see a number of bookmakers offering punters some great prizes for correctly guessing six scores in upcoming Premier League games.

With that in mind, we have decided to take up the Super 6 Challenge.

Here are this week's selections.

Our Super 6 Challenge predictions

Bournemouth vs Everton

A tight draw looks the most likely outcome at the Vitality Stadium, with neither opening performance providing enough evidence to trust either side to win.

Bournemouth lost 2-1 at Manchester City after generating only 0.57 xG from five shots. They created one big chance and placed four efforts from inside the box, showing how rarely they threatened despite scoring. Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0, but their clean sheet owed plenty to Palace’s finishing. The visitors allowed 1.71 xGA, four shots on target and four big chances, while producing 1.48 xG themselves.

Last season’s venue records point towards another competitive match. Bournemouth lost only two of their 19 home fixtures, but 10 ended level. They scored 29 goals and conceded 20, keeping clean sheets in 32% of those games. Everton won seven, drew five and lost seven away, with 21 goals scored and 23 conceded. They failed to score in six of those matches.

Bournemouth’s home draw rate and Everton’s balanced away record are difficult to separate. Both attacks have enough to score once, but their opening data does not support a high total. A 1-1 draw fits the under 2.5 goals selection.

• Score: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton at 11/2

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham’s 3-0 defeat at Brentford was worse than the scoreline suggested, with Thomas Frank’s side allowing 3.87 xGA, 26 shots, 20 attempts inside the box and six big chances. They created two big chances of their own and had four shots on target, but an attacking return of 0.59 xG was still poor.

Newcastle also struggled defensively in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool, conceding 3.64 xGA from 27 shots, seven shots on target and three big chances. Their own attacking numbers were more encouraging, with 1.27 xG, four shots on target and three big chances enough to score twice.

Tottenham’s home record provides another concern after they won only three of 19 league matches there last season, collecting 15 points and conceding 31 goals. Both teams scored in 13 of those games, while Newcastle found the net in 11 of their 19 away fixtures.

Neither team defended well on the opening weekend, but Newcastle created the better chances and Tottenham’s poor home record stretches beyond one performance. The visitors should find enough space to score twice, although their defensive numbers leave Tottenham with a strong chance of getting on the scoresheet.

• Score: Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle at 9/1

Chelsea vs Brighton

Chelsea started the season with a 3-2 win at Fulham, creating 1.92 xG from 18 shots, six shots on target and four big chances. Their attacking performance was enough to deserve the three points, but Fulham also generated 1.51 xG and had six shots on target, with Chelsea unable to control the game defensively.

Brighton were more convincing in their 4-0 win over Aston Villa, recording 3.19 xG, 21 shots and six big chances while restricting Villa to 0.33 xG. The winning margin reflected the balance of the game, although Chelsea should provide a much stronger attacking test at Stamford Bridge.

Last season, Chelsea scored 26 goals and conceded 25 across 19 home matches. They kept only five clean sheets there, while both teams scored in 11 fixtures. Brighton scored 22 goals and conceded 26 in their 19 away games, finding the net in 14 of them.

The two teams produced a combined 5.11 xG, 39 shots, 12 shots on target and 10 big chances on the opening weekend. Chelsea have home advantage, but Brighton’s performance against Villa was strong enough to suggest they will take something from the game. A 2-2 draw is the score prediction.

• Score: Chelsea 2-2 Brighton at 11/1

Leeds vs Brentford

Leeds opened the season with a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest, but there was little between the teams. Daniel Farke’s side recorded 0.75 xG from 11 shots without creating a big chance, while Forest produced 0.75 xG from 12 attempts. Leeds defended well enough to earn the clean sheet, although they offered limited evidence of their attacking level.

Brentford’s 3-0 win over Tottenham was far more convincing. They generated 3.87 xG from 26 shots, with eight on target, 20 from inside the box and six big chances. Tottenham were restricted to 0.59 xG, although they still created two big chances and tested the goalkeeper four times.

The longer-term venue data favours Leeds. They won nine of their 19 home matches last season and conceded 21 goals, while Brentford lost 10 times away and allowed 31 goals. The visitors also failed to score in seven of those games.

Those away numbers stop Brentford from being a clear favourite, but the difference between the teams on the opening weekend was significant. Leeds should offer more at Elland Road and have enough to score, but Brentford’s chance creation points towards them finding the net twice. A 2-1 away win is the score prediction.

• Score: Leeds 1-2 Brentford at 8/1

Sunderland vs Fulham

Sunderland lost 2-1 at Ipswich on the opening weekend, but there was little between the teams. They generated 0.91 xG from 11 shots, with four on target and two big chances, while Ipswich scored twice from 1.43 xG. Sunderland remained in the game throughout and produced enough attacking threat to suggest they will create chances at home.

Fulham were beaten 3-2 by Chelsea in a match containing 3.43 combined xG, 32 shots, 12 shots on target and six big chances. Marco Silva’s side contributed 1.51 xG and six efforts on target, but allowing Chelsea 18 shots and four big chances exposed problems at the other end.

Last season’s venue records favour Sunderland. They won nine of their 19 home league matches, drew six and lost four, scoring 25 goals and conceding 20. Fulham won only four of 19 away fixtures and suffered 10 defeats, with 17 goals scored and 31 conceded. They also failed to score in eight of those matches.

Fulham’s performance against Chelsea points towards them scoring at the Stadium of Light, but their away record remains difficult to ignore. Sunderland were reliable at home last season and should create enough chances against a Fulham defence that struggled in its opener.

• Score: Sunderland 2-1 Fulham at 8/1

Manchester United vs Ipswich

Manchester United’s 2-0 defeat at Hull was one of the opening weekend’s most misleading results. Michael Carrick’s side generated 2.19 xG from 21 shots, with five on target and 15 attempts coming from inside the penalty area. They failed to score despite producing more than twice Hull’s xG total, and a repeat of that finishing looks unlikely at Old Trafford.

United were less convincing defensively. Hull created three big chances from eight shots and scored twice from 0.99 xG, with four of their attempts testing the goalkeeper. Ipswich should pose a threat after starting their season with a 2-1 win over Sunderland. They produced 1.43 xG, three shots on target and two big chances, while eight of their 10 shots came from inside the box.

United scored 39 goals across 19 home league matches last season and failed to find the net only twice. Their defence was less reliable, keeping four clean sheets while both teams scored in 13 of those fixtures.

Ipswich allowed Sunderland four shots on target and two big chances in their opening game, which should give United opportunities to improve on their wasteful performance at Hull. Ipswich have enough attacking threat to score, but United’s chance creation points towards a 2-1 home win.

• Score: Manchester United 2-1 Ipswich at 7/1

The total odds for all six games are a massive 505,439 with Skybet, which may be worth a £1 stake for some fun, I am keen to back Sunderland to beat Fulham and Bournemouth vs Everton to end 1-1. Combining these two games combined give you odds of 57/1 with Skybet.

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