It's great to be back with my EFL column for another season after finishing last year with 28.82 units of profit and an 18.59% ROI. A full breakdown of every bet from the column is available through my X handle.
The opening weekend gives us three selections across Saturday and Sunday. Burnley and West Ham meet at Turf Moor after suffering Premier League relegation together, but the numbers suggest the two clubs arrive in different positions. Bradford host Peterborough at Valley Parade, with last season's home and away data providing an interesting starting point.
Watford against Southampton completes the three fixtures. Southampton arrive with one of the strongest squads in the Championship, while Watford's underlying numbers last season were considerably better than their final points return suggests. There are enough differences between the data and early prices across all three matches to warrant a closer look.
Burnley vs West Ham United
Turf Moor hosts a relegation reunion on Sunday, with two of last season's three relegated Premier League sides meeting after contrasting finishes to the campaign. Burnley's 22 points closely matched their 21.49 xPTS, confirming their 19th-place finish was a fair reflection of their performances rather than a season shaped by poor luck. The bigger concern is how badly they finished, taking only seven points from their final 15 league matches, the worst return anywhere in the Premier League across that period.
Preseason offered little evidence of an immediate turnaround under Nicky Hayen. Burnley went through six friendlies without a win, including defeats against Ajax and Torino, before requiring penalties to get past Notts County in the Carabao Cup.
The underlying numbers from that game were hardly convincing either. Burnley produced only 0.85 xG against 0.35 xGA in a 1-1 draw against lower-league opposition, with Hayen himself describing the performance as average. Captain Josh Cullen being ruled out adds another problem ahead of the opening league fixture.
West Ham arrive with a stronger recent profile. Their 39 points last season came against 42.16 xPTS, suggesting their relegation slightly undersold the level of their performances, while their finish to the campaign was considerably stronger than Burnley's. West Ham collected 19 points from their final 15 league matches, the 11th-best return in the Premier League over that period.
Their Carabao Cup performance also offered much more encouragement. West Ham beat fellow Championship side Portsmouth after producing 2.00 xG and seven big chances while conceding only 0.72 xGA.
Jarrod Bowen has remained despite a major summer rebuild involving more than £150m of player sales, giving them a proven attacking focal point. The underlying numbers, recent form and opening cup performances all favour West Ham. Draw no bet at 8/11 also removes the biggest danger in what still looks capable of being a tight opening league game.
- Best Bet: West Ham draw no bet at 8/11 with Bet365
Bradford City vs Peterborough United
Valley Parade opens its League One season with two sides whose numbers point strongly towards chances at both ends. Bradford reached last season's play-offs with 72.82 xPTS, ranking fifth in the division, and their home performances were particularly strong.
Graham Alexander's side averaged 1.77 xG at Valley Parade, giving them the attacking foundation to trouble most League One opponents on their own ground.
Their Carabao Cup win over Rochdale continued that pattern. Bradford produced 2.33 xG and created five big chances while conceding only 0.83 xGA, suggesting the attacking process that drove last season's play-off challenge has carried into the new campaign.
Adam Phillips has arrived from Barnsley following Jenson Metcalfe's departure, while Jon McCracken and Macaulay Gillesphey strengthen a squad that already had a solid core.
Peterborough's problems last season were much more obvious defensively. Their 54.32 xPTS ranked only 16th in League One, while their away process was worse again, ranking 20th of 24 clubs. They conceded 1.95 xGA per away game, a difficult number to take into a fixture against a Bradford side that generated chances consistently at home.
There is still enough attacking quality to make Peterborough dangerous themselves. Luke Williams' side produced 1.96 xG in their Carabao Cup victory at Bristol Rovers, while conceding 1.33 xGA at the other end. That performance fits the wider profile required for this bet.
Bradford's own defensive record leaves the door open too. Their clean sheet rate was among the weaker marks in League One despite their strong overall campaign, while both teams scored in 74% of Peterborough's away matches.
Bradford should create opportunities against one of last season's weaker travelling defences, but Peterborough have enough attacking threat to contribute themselves. Both teams to score looks the strongest angle.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 4/5 with Bet365
Watford vs Southampton
Vicarage Road hosts two sides whose underlying numbers suggest considerably more attacking quality than their results always showed last season. Southampton's 80.64 xPTS almost perfectly matched their actual return of 80 points, giving us a strong season-long sample rather than a team whose league position was heavily influenced by finishing variance.
Their away profile is particularly interesting for this market. Southampton failed to score in only 8% of their matches on the road, the best rate anywhere in the Championship. At the same time, they kept only two away clean sheets all season, the worst record in the division. That combination regularly created exactly the type of match needed for an over 2.5 goals bet, with Southampton capable of scoring consistently without controlling games defensively.
Their preparation for the new season has reinforced the attacking side of that profile. Southampton won all four preseason matches before producing 2.89 xG and four big chances in their Carabao Cup victory at Colchester, another performance where chance creation was not an issue.
Watford's numbers also suggest there is more attacking quality available than their final league position indicated. They finished with only 57 points despite recording 68.02 xPTS, with a disastrous finish of only 16 points from their final 21 league matches dragging them down the table.
Their Carabao Cup tie against Crawley provided an extreme example of their biggest issue. Watford registered 36 shots and generated 4.30 xG but needed a stoppage-time winner to finally turn that dominance into a result. The finishing was poor, but the volume of opportunities remains difficult to ignore.
Southampton's away record provides the strongest argument. A side that scored in 92% of its away league matches while keeping only two clean sheets repeatedly produced open games. Watford have already shown they are capable of generating chances in huge numbers. With both attacks producing strong early evidence of chance creation and neither defensive profile offering enough confidence, over 2.5 goals at 3/4 is the preferred bet.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with William Hill
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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