MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a shorter acca or keep building towards a bigger return.
This weekend’s list covers the Premier League, Championship, League One, Scottish Premiership, Eredivisie, Primeira Liga and Allsvenskan.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Celtic have produced the clearest statistical advantage among the teams assessed, winning both league matches while scoring six goals and conceding once. Those results were supported by an average of 4.09 xG, 25.5 shots and 20.5 attempts from inside the box per game.
Falkirk have taken one point from two matches and remain without a goal, averaging only 0.55 xG while allowing 1.42 xGA. Celtic are priced at 2/9, implying a win probability of 81.8%, and the difference between the teams supports their position as the strongest selection. Celtic to win starts the acca.
FC Porto have won all three league matches without conceding, scoring six goals while producing an average of 2.49 xG and 15.7 shots per game. Their opponents have created 0.93 xG per match, although none have found a way through.
Academico Viseu remain without a win after three games, drawing twice and losing once. They have averaged 1.13 xG while allowing 1.91 xGA, leaving a clear difference in chance quality between the sides. Odds of 7/20 imply a 74.1% chance of an away victory, with FC Porto to win supported by their perfect start and defensive record.
AZ Alkmaar have started with three wins from three, scoring eight goals and conceding once. Their average of 3.10 xG is one of the strongest attacking figures in the entire set, while they have allowed only 0.75 xGA and faced limited threat inside their own penalty area.
Go Ahead Eagles are also unbeaten, but their performances have been less convincing than their seven-point return. They have averaged 1.68 xG while conceding 1.72 xGA, compared with AZ’s positive average xG difference of 2.35. AZ are priced at 2/5, implying a 71.4% chance of winning, making AZ Alkmaar to win the third selection.
Celtic, FC Porto & AZ Alkmaar all to win at 1/1 with Ladbrokes
Liverpool’s opening draw was disappointing, but the performance contained little to discourage support at Anfield. They generated 3.64 xG, 27 shots, 16 attempts from inside the box and three big chances while conceding 1.27 xGA.
Nottingham Forest lost their first match 1-0 and recorded only 0.75 xG, six attempts from inside the box and no big chances. Liverpool are priced at 11/20, implying a 64.5% chance of victory, with their attacking numbers offering stronger evidence than the opening result. Liverpool to win is the fourth leg.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar & Liverpool all to win at 2/1 with Coral
Wolverhampton Wanderers have taken four points from their first two Championship matches while averaging 1.79 xG and allowing 0.82 xGA. Their attacking numbers include 17 shots and 11.5 attempts from inside the box per game, giving them a clear territorial advantage over Stoke.
The visitors have lost both games, conceding five goals while allowing 1.75 xGA per match. Stoke have averaged only 0.94 xG and have yet to collect a point, while Wolves have produced the stronger process at both ends. Odds of 8/15 imply a 65.2% chance of a home win, supporting Wolverhampton Wanderers to win.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool & Wolves all to win at 4/1 with Coral
Hacken have lost only three of their 18 Allsvenskan matches, winning eight and drawing seven. Their underlying figures are stronger than those results, with an average of 1.84 xG against 1.24 xGA and a positive xG difference of 0.60 per game.
Vasteras have won seven of 18 but have conceded 32 goals, an average of 1.78 per match. Their 1.22 xG and 1.70 xGA leave them with a negative underlying difference of 0.48, creating a sizeable gap between the sides. Hacken are 8/15, implying a 65.2% chance of victory, and Hacken to win earns its place in the middle of the list.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool, Wolves & Hacken all to win at 6/1 with Coral
Elfsborg have lost four of 18 league games, compared with 10 defeats for Degerfors. The hosts have scored 25 goals and conceded 19, while their opponents have managed 17 and allowed 29.
The underlying numbers point in the same direction. Elfsborg average 1.48 xG against 1.31 xGA, while Degerfors sit at 0.94 xG and 1.56 xGA. That leaves a difference of 0.79 between the teams’ average xG margins. Elfsborg are priced at 3/5, implying a 62.5% chance of winning, making Elfsborg to win a well-supported selection.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool, Wolves, Hacken & Elfsborg all to win at 11/1 with Coral
Sheffield Wednesday have won one and lost one of their opening two matches, but their underlying performance has been stronger than the three-point return suggests. They have averaged 2.23 xG while allowing only 0.70 xGA, giving them the best average xG difference in their division.
Bromley are unbeaten, although their two matches have produced only 0.81 xG per game against 1.30 xGA. Their results have therefore run ahead of their chance data, while Wednesday have moved in the opposite direction. Priced at 9/10 and carrying an implied win probability of 52.6%, Sheffield Wednesday to win offers more value than several shorter-priced legs above them.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool, Wolves, Hacken, Elfsborg & Sheffield Wednesday all to win at 21/1 with Coral
Hearts responded to their opening defeat at Aberdeen by beating Dundee United 4-0 at Tynecastle. They produced 2.15 xG and four big chances in that home victory while allowing only 0.58 xGA and no big chances.
St Johnstone won their opening home match 4-3 before losing 1-0 at St Mirren. Their away performance produced 1.13 xG against 1.36 xGA, with three big chances conceded. Hearts are priced at 3/4, implying a 57.1% chance of winning, and their first home display provides enough support for Hearts to win.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool, Wolves, Hacken, Elfsborg, Sheffield Wednesday & Hearts all to win at 37/1 with Coral
West Ham have taken one point from two Championship matches, but their performances have been stronger than the results. They created 3.23 xG, 25 shots and four big chances in last weekend’s 2-1 defeat against Charlton, while allowing only 0.70 xGA, seven shots and one big chance.
Watford are unbeaten after beating Southampton and drawing with Wrexham, although they have allowed 3.50 xGA across those matches while creating 1.82 xG. Their four-point return therefore looks better than the underlying process. West Ham are priced at 9/10, implying a 52.6% chance of victory, and West Ham to win is the final and highest-risk selection.
Celtic, FC Porto, AZ Alkmaar, Liverpool, Wolves, Hacken, Elfsborg, Sheffield Wednesday, Hearts & West Ham all to win at 71/1 with Coral
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware