Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 8 – Arsenal vs Burnley – Monday 18th May at 8pm
Arsenal to win, over 3.5 corners and under 7 match goals stands out as one of the strongest combinations on the entire card, with every part of the selection strongly supported by the underlying numbers.
The Arsenal win side of the bet is straightforward. Their home record of 14 wins, two draws and two defeats includes only 11 goals conceded across 18 matches, giving them the strongest defensive home profile in the division.
Arsenal have also won the xG battle in 100% of home games this season while their home non penalty xG of 1.84 and home non penalty xGA of 0.83 are both the strongest figures in the league. Burnley meanwhile have won only two away matches all season, scoring 20 and conceding 45.
Their away xG battle won rate sits at 0% while their away non penalty xG of 0.77 is the weakest attacking figure in the division. Their away xPTS total of 9.55 is also the lowest in the league.
The corners element carries equally strong support. Arsenal have won four or more corners in 14 of 18 home matches, landing in 78% of games, while Burnley have conceded four or more corners in 17 of their 18 away fixtures, a 94% hit rate. Arsenal are averaging 6.06 corners per home match while Burnley allow 6.11 per away game.
The under 7 match goals side strengthens the bet even further. Not a single Arsenal home game or Burnley away game this season has produced more than six total goals, meaning under 7 has landed in 100% of the combined sample.
- Bet: Arsenal to win, over 3.5 corners and under 7 match goals
- Odds: 1/5
- 47.49 units returns 56.98
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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