Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
Our run finally came to an end last time as Chelsea failed to collect a card against Brentford. We had won 27 bets without a losing selection across the two challenges, but now we reset.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Morocco beat Gabon last night as we move to bet 3. This time we are staying in the UK and League One.
Bet 3 – Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion – Saturday 26th September at 3pm
This fixture has a strong case for over 1.5 goals, with every league match involving either side producing at least two goals this season.
Plymouth’s seven fixtures have contained 24 goals, an average of 3.43 per match. They have scored 14, including 10 across their previous three games. Their results during this run were a 3-2 win at Doncaster Rovers, a 3-0 home victory over Barnsley and a 4-2 success at Blackpool.
All three matches at Home Park have cleared 1.5 goals. Plymouth have scored six times and conceded three, while recording 3.55 xG and allowing 3.12 xGA. Those figures produce an average of 2.22 expected goals per home game.
Burton’s record offers further support. Their seven league matches have produced 24 goals, with six finishing over 2.5. They remain without a clean sheet and have conceded 12 times.
Each of Burton’s three away games has contained at least three goals. They won 2-1 at Leicester City before losing 2-1 at Notts County and 3-0 at Oxford United. Their away matches have averaged 2.28 combined xG, despite Burton generating only 0.59 xG per trip.
Plymouth provide the main route to two goals. They have scored in every home match, while Burton have conceded on every league appearance. A 2-0 Plymouth win is enough, with Burton’s defensive record also leaving space for both sides to contribute.
Over 1.5 goals is strongly supported by the results, venue splits and underlying numbers.
- Bet: Over 1.5 match goals
- Odds: 1/5
- Bank: 13.32 units returns 15.98
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware