The Championship table is beginning to take shape after seven or eight matches, but league position does not always provide an accurate measure of performance. A team might sit near the top after converting chances at an unusually high rate. Another might be struggling despite consistently creating better opportunities than its opponents.
We have compared actual points with expected points and measured goals against xG. Open-play and set-piece figures show how teams are creating and conceding chances, while shots, efforts on target, attempts inside the box and big chances provide further context.
Swansea City lead the division with 17 points, but their expected total is 11.78. They have conceded six goals from 10.36 xGA, creating a defensive overperformance of more than four goals. Swansea do limit opponents to 2.8 shots on target per game, so their defensive record is not based entirely on good fortune. Their results still provide a stronger picture than the overall quality of chances faced.
Charlton Athletic are another significant overachiever. Their 12 points exceed 7.41 xPTS despite averaging only 9.6 shots and 0.78 xG per game. They face 16.9 shots per match and have been outperformed across most attacking measures. Their current top-half position looks difficult to sustain without a major improvement in chance creation.
Cardiff City are at the opposite end of the scale. They have collected seven points from 14.12 xPTS and scored 10 goals from 16.63 xG. Cardiff average 18.5 shots, 12.6 attempts inside the box and 6.6 shots on target. Their 1.51 open-play xG per game ranks third in the Championship. The results hide one of the division’s most productive attacks.
Queens Park Rangers have also received less attacking reward than expected. They have scored 10 goals from 14.81 xG while averaging 17.2 shots and 11.4 attempts inside the box. Their 1.54 open-play xG ranks second behind West Ham United. Queens Park Rangers have 13 points compared with 13.76 xPTS, but improved finishing would turn strong performances into more comfortable results.
West Ham’s position is supported by the data. Their 15 points closely match 14.82 xPTS, while their 1.58 open-play xG is the highest figure in the division. They also create 4.38 big chances per game and allow only 1.38. The main weakness comes from set pieces, where West Ham concede 0.66 xG per match.
Stoke City have scored 13 goals from 8.03 xG, the largest attacking overperformance in the Championship. They create only 1.2 big chances per game and have an expected total of 9.31 points compared with 13 collected.
Lincoln City lead the division for set-piece xG at 0.80 per game but have scored seven goals from 12.58 overall xG. Their dead-ball threat has not produced the expected return.
Preston North End have four points from 10.66 xPTS. Their attack has scored eight times from 10.51 xG, while their defence has conceded 15 from 11.71 xGA. Poor outcomes at both ends have pushed them towards the bottom.
Burnley have also collected four points. They allow 3.38 big chances per match and have conceded 17 goals from 12.97 xGA. Their defensive process is weak, although the number of goals conceded still exceeds expectation.
Sheffield United have the division’s worst open-play defence at 1.35 xGA per game. They concede 16.5 shots and 11.8 attempts inside the box, showing their defensive problems extend beyond finishing variance.
Derby County allow 10.4 shots inside the box and 5.6 efforts on target per game. They also share the worst set-piece xGA figure with West Ham.
Southampton have scored 19 goals from 14.26 xG. Their attack is performing well, but five goals of overperformance have strengthened their results. The deduction explains their official position, while finishing efficiency explains part of their 14-point return on the pitch.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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