Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en-route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 5 – Aston Villa vs Liverpool – Friday 15th May at 8pm
The numbers strongly support Aston Villa scoring against Liverpool on Friday evening, with Liverpool's away performances against stronger opposition standing out as a major concern.
Liverpool's away record against top half sides this season reads W1-D1-L6. Their only victory came away at Everton and even that required a stoppage time winner. Against stronger teams away from home they have struggled badly throughout the campaign.
Villa's home attacking process meanwhile remains among the strongest in the league. Across their last four home matches they are averaging 1.92 non-penalty xG per game, consistently creating high quality chances at Villa Park.
Liverpool's defensive numbers on the road strengthen the case further. They are conceding 1.74 xGA away from home across their last four matches while allowing 21 shots on target over the same period. Opponents are regularly creating dangerous opportunities against them.
Villa's set piece threat adds another layer entirely. They rank first in the Premier League for set piece xG ratio across both the last four and last eight matches, while Liverpool have struggled badly defending aerial situations away from home. They are conceding five headed duels per game inside their own box while winning only two.
Villa have also scored in each of their last four home games. Their attacking numbers combined with Liverpool's away defensive issues make Villa to score one of the strongest data backed angles on the board this weekend.
- Bet: Liverpool NO clean sheet
- Odds: 2/9
- 25.44 units returns 31.09
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware