The League Two season finished with Bromley and Milton Keynes Dons securing automatic promotion alongside Cambridge United, leaving four teams fighting for the final League One place.
Salford City, Notts County, Chesterfield and Grimsby Town now meet across two legged semi finals, with Wembley Stadium hosting the final on Monday 25th May.
The draw pairs fourth placed Salford with seventh placed Grimsby, while fifth placed Notts County face sixth placed Chesterfield. The higher ranked side hosts the second leg.
Salford head the market despite poor head to head numbers against the other playoff teams. They lost both league meetings against Grimsby, lost both against Chesterfield, and their combined record against the other three playoff sides reads W2-D0-L4. Chesterfield look the most underrated side in the field.
They completed doubles over Salford, Notts County and Grimsby during the regular season, yet remain third or fourth favourites in most markets. The strongest angles sit with Grimsby in the first semi final and Chesterfield in the second.
Fixtures
The playoff schedule is confirmed, with four clubs now two matches from Wembley and one win from promotion.
Grimsby Town host Salford City at Blundell Park on Sunday afternoon. Grimsby finished seventh on 78 points while Salford ended the season fourth on 81 points. The second leg takes place on Friday evening at the Peninsula Stadium.
Sunday evening sees Chesterfield host Notts County at the SMH Group Stadium. Chesterfield finished sixth with 79 points while Notts County placed fifth on 80 points. The return leg takes place at Meadow Lane on Friday evening.
The market makes Salford narrow favourites, with Chesterfield and Notts County closely priced and Grimsby rated outsiders. Those prices appear driven more by final league position than the evidence from the season. Grimsby kept clean sheets in both meetings against Salford and scored five unanswered goals across the two games. Chesterfield won all six league matches against the other three playoff teams.
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town are the outsiders in the outright market but look the clearest value side in the first semi final. They finished seventh with 78 points but posted an away xPTS total of 34.94, the second highest figure in League Two behind only Barnet.
The head to head record against Salford is central to the argument. Grimsby beat Salford in both league meetings this season, winning 3-1 at Blundell Park and 2-0 at the Peninsula Stadium.
Against the full top six, Grimsby produced a W5-D4-L3 record, second only to Chesterfield among the playoff teams. Victories came against MK Dons, Cambridge United, Salford twice and Notts County away.
The away process strengthens the case further. Grimsby averaged 1.43 non penalty xG away from home, the second best figure among the playoff sides, while their 7.32 away shots in box per game ranked highest in the group. Their 24 away big chances created ranked first among the four semi finalists, while only 16 conceded was the second best defensive figure.
At Blundell Park the numbers remain strong. Grimsby created 29 home big chances during the campaign, the highest total in League Two, while conceding only 17. Their 39% home clean sheet rate was also the strongest among the playoff teams.
The last eight matches data places Grimsby fourth in the division for xPTS with 13.92, the best figure among the four semi finalists, while averaging 8.88 shots in box per game, again the strongest figure in the group.
The last four matches show a slight downturn, with xG turning marginally negative and big chances standing at four created and five conceded. Their set piece xG for of 2.96 remains their strongest recent metric, suggesting dead ball situations are becoming a major attacking route.
The structure of the semi final also suits them. They host the first leg at a ground where they created more big chances than any side in League Two this season, against a Salford team that they beat 5-1 over the two games in the regular season.
Salford City
Salford City finished fourth with 81 points and enter the playoffs as market favourites, but the head to head numbers against the other playoff teams are poor.
Against Grimsby they lost both league meetings, losing 3-1 at home and 2-0 away. Against Chesterfield they also lost twice, going down 1-0 at home and 2-0 away. Their only victories against playoff opposition came against Notts County, beating them 2-1 in both fixtures.
Their combined record against the other three playoff sides reads W2-D0-L4. Against the full top six they posted a W4-D1-L7 record, taking only 13 points from a possible 30 against sides around them in the table.
The split between home and away form defines their season. At the Peninsula Stadium their numbers were excellent. Salford kept clean sheets in 43% of home matches, conceded only 24 goals in 23 home games, created 28 home big chances and posted a home failed to score rate of only 22%.
The issue comes away from home.
Their away xPTS total of 30.37 was the lowest of the four playoff sides and only 10th best in the division overall. They won 11 away matches but drew only two from 23 fixtures, the most extreme home away split in League Two.
Their away failed to score rate of 35% means they failed to score in more than one third of away games. Salford created only 16 away big chances while conceding 18, leaving them with a negative differential on the road.
Recent form is stronger. Across the last four matches Salford rank fourth among the playoff sides for xPTS with 7.69, while posting 1.31 non penalty xG for and only 0.72 against. Their four big chances created and only one conceded across that period is the strongest recent defensive big chance record in the division.
But the key issue remains unchanged. They face a Grimsby side that beat them twice this season without conceding, at a ground where Grimsby created more big chances than any other team in League Two.
Chesterfield
Chesterfield look the strongest outright case in the playoff field and the market appears to have underestimated them. They finished sixth with 79 points but produced the strongest record against top six opposition in League Two, going W6-D5-L1.
Their only defeat against a top six side came at home against Cambridge United. Against every other top six opponent they remained unbeaten.
Against the other three playoff teams the record is flawless. Chesterfield beat Salford home and away, winning 1-0 away and 2-0 at home. They beat Notts County home and away, winning 2-0 at home and 3-2 away. They also completed a double over Grimsby, winning 2-1 at home and 1-0 away.
That leaves them W6-D0-L0 against Salford, Notts County and Grimsby combined. No other playoff side comes close to matching that record.
Their away process reinforces the argument. Chesterfield finished third in the away table with 38 points while averaging 1.43 non penalty xG away from home, level with Grimsby. Their away failed to score rate of only 9% was the joint best figure in League Two.
Their attacking consistency across the season is the standout individual metric in the draw. Chesterfield failed to score in only 13% of home matches and only 9% of away matches, the best combined record in the division.
Across the last six matches they posted a PPG of 2.33, unbeaten and the strongest recent return among the playoff teams.
The main concern is set piece defending. Across the last four matches Chesterfield generated only 0.57 set piece xG while conceding 2.86 set piece xGA, the worst differential in League Two across that period. Their away big chances conceded total of 27 across the full season was also the second worst figure in the playoff field.
That defensive weakness matters, particularly ahead of a second leg at Meadow Lane where matches regularly become open and high scoring.
But the defensive concerns have to be balanced against the strongest head to head record in the draw. Chesterfield already beat Notts County twice this season by an aggregate score of 5-2. The market pricing them behind sides they consistently beat during the season looks difficult to justify.
Notts County
Notts County arrive in the weakest recent form of the four playoff teams and their head to head record against Chesterfield is poor.
Against Chesterfield they lost both league meetings, going down 3-2 at home and 2-0 away. They conceded in both matches and allowed five goals across the two fixtures.
Against the other three playoff sides combined their record reads W1-D0-L5, with the only win coming away at Grimsby. They failed to beat Chesterfield, Salford or Grimsby at Meadow Lane during the regular season.
Against the full top six they posted a W3-D4-L5 record, alongside heavy defeats against organised opposition including a 4-0 loss away at Cambridge United.
Their season long home numbers still contain positives. Meadow Lane averaged 3.04 goals per game this season, the highest figure in League Two, while Notts County created 28 home big chances and posted a home non penalty xG of 1.96, the strongest home attacking process among the playoff sides.
The away profile is weaker. Their away xPTS total of 31.94 ranked sixth in the division while their away process remained competitive rather than dominant.
The biggest concern is recent form. Across the last four matches Notts County rank 19th in League Two for xPTS with only 4.05. Their big chances record during that period stands at only two created and six conceded, the worst differential among the playoff sides.
Their open play xG numbers of 0.65 for and 0.88 against, combined with weak touches in box data and 2.65 set piece xGA conceded, suggest a side losing defensive structure and attacking momentum at the worst stage of the season.
The second leg at Meadow Lane still gives them a route back into the tie because of how open their home games tend to become. But first they need a result at Chesterfield's ground, and they failed to win there in either visit this season.
Best Bets
Grimsby Town to win the first leg at Blundell Park looks the strongest single angle in the draw. They beat Salford in both league meetings this season, conceding only once in both matches and scored five goals. across the two fixtures. They host the tie at a ground where they created more big chances than any side in League Two, against an away team carrying the weakest road process of the four playoff teams.
- Grimsby to beat Salford in the first leg at 6/5 with Coral
Chesterfield to win the first leg against Notts County is another strong angle. Chesterfield beat Notts County in both league meetings by an aggregate score of 5-2 and arrive unbeaten across their last six matches with the strongest recent PPG numbers among the playoff sides. Notts County enter the playoffs with the weakest recent xPTS figures and the worst recent big chances differential.
- Chesterfield to beat Notts County in the 1st leg at 11/10 with Ladbrokes
Chesterfield to win promotion looks the standout outright value bet. They are the only team in the playoffs to beat all three playoff rivals home and away during the regular season. Their W6 D5 L1 record against the top six is comfortably the strongest in the field, while their attacking consistency is unmatched across the division.
- Chesterfield to gain promotion at 11/4 with Paddy
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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