Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
We were very unlucky not to see at least three goals at Yeovil last night, but we secured the refund so no harm was done to the challenge. Two goals, 14 shots with seven on target. It was the right bet, but we didn’t get the result the data suggested.
Bet 1 – NY Red Bulls vs St Louis – Wednesday 30th September at 11:30pm
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City meet on Wednesday night after their original fixture was postponed due to the storm, with both sides still having plenty to play for as the MLS playoffs approach.
New York sit eighth in the Eastern Conference on 33 points and come into this game after consecutive 1-0 victories. That recent run points towards tighter matches, but the season-long data provides a strong case for at least two goals.
Over 1.5 goals has landed in 21 of New York's 26 MLS matches this season, an 81% hit rate. Their home record is similar, with 10 of 12 matches at Sports Illustrated Arena producing at least two goals.
St. Louis strengthen the selection. Over 1.5 has landed in 23 of their 26 league matches, including 12 of 13 away from home. Combining New York's home record with St. Louis' away record gives us 22 winners from 25 matches, an 88% strike rate.
Both sides have also regularly contributed to the scoring. New York have scored in eight of 12 home games but conceded in 11, while St. Louis have found the net in 10 of 13 away matches and conceded in 12.
There is also plenty at stake. New York are battling for an Eastern Conference playoff position, while St. Louis arrive on a 16-game unbeaten run knowing victory in their game in hand would take them up to second in the Western Conference.
New York's recent low-scoring run deserves respect, but the broader home and away numbers make over 1.5 goals the stronger angle.
- Bet: Over 1.5 goals
- Odds: 1/7
- Bank: 10.0 units returns 11.25
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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