The National League column enters the latest midweek round with an 8.49% ROI after 30 bets this season. Tuesday’s card offers three fixtures supported by clear differences in home and away performance. Yeovil Town welcome a Worthing side whose travels have produced chances and goals at both ends. Woking return to Kingfield after scoring five at Carlisle United, but Solihull Moors arrive with underlying attacking figures stronger than their results suggest.
The early kickoff at Meadow Park provides a different angle. Boreham Wood have combined the division’s second-highest scoring average with its strongest underlying defence. Kidderminster Harriers make the trip after another match in which their attacking output failed to produce a goal.
Recent scorelines form only part of the assessment. Home and away xG splits, shot data, finishing performance and defensive regression have shaped this week’s shortlist. One fixture has the highest projected goal total on the card, while another presents the largest venue-based xGD gap.
Here are our three best bets from the midweek National League schedule.
Yeovil Town v Worthing
Yeovil Town return to Huish Park after collecting three points at Kidderminster Harriers, although the performance was less convincing than the result. Joe Powell scored the only goal after 74 minutes, with Yeovil producing four shots and placing one on target. Worthing arrive after beating Halifax Town 2-1, controlling the shot count 17-3 and recording seven efforts on target.
The latest results point in different directions, but the wider home and away data support goals. Yeovil average 1.50 xG and allow 1.40 xGA at home. Worthing generate 1.35 xG on their travels while conceding 2.06 xGA. Blending those figures gives this fixture a projected total of 3.16 goals, the highest on the midweek National League card.
Every Yeovil home match has produced over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored and at least three goals have been recorded in all four Worthing away fixtures. Yeovil have scored eight and conceded seven across five home games, while Worthing have shown enough attacking threat to test them.
Finishing performance is the main reservation. Yeovil have scored 1.90 goals per game from 1.22 xG overall, leaving them 0.68 above expectation. Their latest win also came from their only shot on target. Worthing are exceeding xG by 0.33 goals per match, but Saturday's volume supports their current output.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 is backed by the venue splits and repeated scoring pattern, rather than Yeovil's latest narrow victory.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
Boreham Wood v Kidderminster Harriers
Meadow Park hosts a meeting between the division's strongest underlying defence and a Kidderminster Harriers side struggling to create chances away. Boreham Wood strengthened their position at the top with a 3-0 victory at Solihull Moors, while Kidderminster suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Yeovil Town.
Saturday's performances increased the gap between the teams. Boreham Wood restricted Solihull to two shots and one on target, with Callum Whitfield scoring twice before Tom Bird added the third. Kidderminster recorded nine attempts and four on target against Yeovil, but failed to score while allowing the visitors to win with their only effort on target.
Boreham Wood rank first for xGD at +0.64, producing 1.69 xG and allowing 1.05 xGA per game. Their home record is stronger at 2.06 xG and 1.21 xGA, giving them a +0.85 xGD at Meadow Park. Kidderminster average only 0.93 xG away and concede 1.78 xGA, producing a -0.84 away difference.
Boreham Wood average 2.60 goals per match and have scored three or more in each of their last three games. Kidderminster have scored 1.30 per game overall, but their away chance creation ranks among the weakest in the division.
Boreham Wood are outperforming xG by 0.91 goals per game, so their finishing rate deserves caution. The handicap offers protection against a narrow result. A one-goal home victory returns the stake, while a win by two or more lands the bet.
- Best bet: Boreham Wood -1 Asian handicap at 3/4 with Bet365
Woking v Solihull Moors
Woking return home after a 5-2 victory at Carlisle United. John Marquis completed a hat-trick, including two penalties, as Woking placed 12 of their 14 shots on target. Solihull Moors travel after a 3-0 home defeat against Boreham Wood in which they managed only two attempts and one on target.
Those performances create concern over Solihull's contribution, but their away numbers offer a stronger case. They average 1.51 xG on their travels and have scored in every away match. Both teams have found the net in all four, while three have produced at least three goals.
Woking average 1.52 xG and concede 0.99 xGA at Kingfield. Both teams have scored in four of their five home fixtures, although only three have cleared 2.5 goals. Across the season, Woking generate 1.56 xG per game and Solihull produce 1.47, giving both attacks enough underlying output to contribute.
Solihull's defensive record remains the main driver. They allow 1.69 xGA and concede 2.60 actual goals per match. Their attack has moved in the opposite direction, scoring nine times despite their chance quality pointing towards almost 15 goals. Improved finishing would support this market.
Woking's 12 shots on target at Carlisle are unlikely to be repeated, while Solihull's latest display was poor. The selection rests on the broader venue sample. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 fits the away pattern and Solihull's weak defensive process.
- Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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