Two of our three National League bets landed last weekend, with the third falling short as Scunthorpe United failed to score against Harrogate Town. That result still produced a profitable round and takes us into another full weekend of fixtures.
This week's selections focus on three matches involving teams from the lower half of the table. Worthing host a Barrow side encouraged by their first league win, Solihull Moors continue their search for a first victory against Aldershot Town, while Sutton United look to respond to successive defeats when Scunthorpe visit Gander Green Lane.
Results provide the starting point, but the selections are built around xG, xGA, shot volume, shots on target and efforts inside the box. Those figures highlight several gaps which are less obvious from the league table alone.
Worthing vs Barrow
Worthing and Barrow meet in Saturday's 12:30 kickoff with both sides sitting in the bottom half after six matches. Worthing are 16th with seven points, while Barrow are one point and two places behind them despite producing stronger underlying numbers.
Barrow secured their first victory of the season last time out, beating Sutton United 3-0. That result followed three draws and two defeats across their opening five matches. Worthing drew 2-2 at AFC Fylde after losing 3-2 at home to Boreham Wood, leaving them with 12 goals conceded.
The xG comparison favours the visitors. Barrow average 1.54 xG and 1.16 xGA, producing a +0.38 xGD. Worthing sit at 1.38 xG and 1.85 xGA, giving them a -0.47 xGD, the second-worst figure in the division.
The shot data strengthens the case. Barrow allowed 7.6 shots, 3.8 on target and 4.4 inside the box per game across the first five rounds. Worthing faced 17.8 attempts, 5.4 on target and 10.8 inside the box. No team in the supplied data conceded more shots or efforts inside the area.
Barrow's attacking output remains the main concern. They averaged 10.8 shots and scored eight times across six matches, while the win over Sutton was their first of the campaign. Their defensive control and Worthing's recurring problems without the ball still create a clear matchup advantage.
- Best bet: Barrow to win at 6/4 at William Hill
Solihull Moors vs Aldershot Town
Solihull Moors remain bottom of the National League as they prepare to host Aldershot Town on Saturday afternoon. The hosts have taken one point from six matches, while Aldershot sit ninth with 11 points after losing only once.
Solihull stopped a run of five defeats with a 1-1 draw at Gateshead last weekend, but their wider defensive record remains poor. They have conceded 17 goals, five more than any other team. Aldershot arrive after a 1-0 home victory over Halifax Town and have allowed only four goals across six rounds.
The underlying numbers narrow the apparent gap without removing it. Solihull average 1.55 xG and 1.81 xGA, producing a -0.26 xGD. Aldershot's figures are less dramatic at 1.28 xG and 1.30 xGA, leaving them close to level at -0.02.
Shot quality provides the clearer separation. Solihull faced 15.8 shots and 7.6 efforts on target per game across the first five matches, alongside nine attempts inside their box. They generated 12.6 shots themselves, but only 3.6 tested the goalkeeper.
Aldershot also averaged 3.6 shots on target, so their attack has not generated dominant numbers. Their defensive work has been far stronger, limiting opponents to three shots on target per game. That control matters against a Solihull side scoring once per match despite producing 1.55 xG.
Aldershot's limited attacking output adds risk, but Solihull's defensive record and the difference in league form make the away price attractive.
- Best bet: Aldershot Town DNB at 5/4 with Bet365
Sutton United vs Scunthorpe United
Sutton United return home after successive defeats looking to protect their place inside the top five. Scunthorpe United travel south sitting 21st, having collected four points and lost four of their opening six matches.
Sutton began with four wins from four before losing 2-0 at home to Wealdstone and 3-0 at Barrow. Those results have removed some of the strength from their early position. Scunthorpe also arrive after consecutive defeats, following a 4-2 loss at Carlisle United with a 2-0 home defeat against Harrogate Town.
The xG figures show a closer contest than the league table. Sutton average 1.19 xG and 1.22 xGA, producing a -0.03 xGD. Scunthorpe generate more at 1.56 xG, but their 1.71 xGA leaves them at -0.15.
Sutton's defensive shot numbers provide the main reason for supporting the hosts. They allowed 8.4 shots, 2.6 on target and three inside the box per game across the first five rounds. Those figures rank among the strongest defensive returns in the supplied data.
Scunthorpe faced 13.8 attempts, with 6.4 on target and 9.6 coming from inside the box. They have conceded 12 goals and failed to score in their last match.
Sutton's attack presents the clear reservation. They averaged only 7.6 shots and 3.4 on target, then failed to score in their last two games. This selection rests on defensive control and Scunthorpe's repeated vulnerability rather than strong home attacking numbers.
- Best bet: Sutton United -0.25AH at 19/20 with Bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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