EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Middlesbrough vs QPR
Since Michael Carrick was appointed as head coach at Boro there has been a remarkable turnaround of results and performances. Under his leadership Boro have now collected 37 points from a maximum of 46. Defeats have come to local rivals Sunderland, runway leaders Burnley and Preston in his 1st game in charge. Boro have registered 34 goals over the 16 games with just 16 conceded, they have found the net twice or more in 11 and most recently won at Bramall Lane, defeating Sheff Utd 3-1.
Over the 16 games, I have Boro top on xPTS and have the highest xG generated. It’s very impressive.
Rangers on the other hand are on the road of W1-D6-L9 scoring just eight goals over this 16-game period whilst letting in a total of 26 goals. In late October, Rangers were 4th and just four points behind leaders Burnley. There was already uncertainty over the then manager Micheal Beale and that was played out with poor results by the team. By the time he finally left in early December, the team had lost three of their next four games. When Neil Critchley was finally appointed, QPR had just lost 3-0 to Burnley having collected just one point from their previous five games. Fast-forward another 10 matches and they have collected just a further eight points.
Over 15 games no side in the Championship has collected fewer points, scored fewer goals and only three sides have conceded more goals.
Boro are flying and now firmly have Sheff Utd in their sights and automatic promotion and they sit just seven points behind them and with the Blades having a tricky game at Millwall the gap could be even closer come 5pm on Saturday evening.
The odds for a Boro win have long gone after their impressive win over the Blades midweek, but I am happy to back them to win with over 1.5 match goals. As previously mentioned, Boro have scored 1.5+ goals in 11 of their 16 games under Carrick and 11 of their 12 victories have come with at least two goals in the match. Rangers have scored in five of their last seven games.
- Boro win and over 2 goals at 5/6 with Bet365
Plymouth vs Fleetwood
Plymouth have now opened up at gap of eight points to 3rd placed Bolton and they are now 10 points ahead of Ipswich in 4th, so whilst there may be a little bit of pressure coming off Plymouth as they seek promotion back to the Championship with some many games left in the season they cant afford to take their foot of the pedal.
Their home record is outstanding with W14-D0-L1 scoring an average of 2.13 goals per home fixture. The hosts will be looking to build on this record backed by another capacity crowd and since their surprise 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Port Vale, they have returned five wins on the spin scoring at total of 13 goals across the five games.
Argyle have now scored in 14 of 15 home games, finding the net at least twice in 11 of their 15 home fixtures. Fleetwood have been surprisingly good on the road but have conceded in 12 of 15 away fixtures this season although scored in 14 of 15, so I am expecting to see both teams to score here but the hosts have the ability to grind out wins at the moment as they can start to see the finishing line.
Given Fleetwood decent away record with just four defeats on the road, I am going to back Plymouth to score 1.5 goals and to win or draw the match. We can combine this with Bet365 at odds of 4/5
- Plymouth over 1 goals and Plymouth double chance at 4/5 with Bet365
Leyton Orient vs Crawley
The team with the best home record entertains the side with the worst away record. Orient at home have gone W12-D3-L1 this term with dropped points coming when they faced Stevenage, who sit 2nd, Northampton who are currently 4th and then Barrow and Newport who both sit just below mid table. It’s safe Crawley are worse than all of these sides! Orients results have been built on an excellent defensive foundation with just five goals conceded at home and three of the four games that they have failed to win have ended 0-0.
Crawley have an away record of W0-D6-L8 scoring just 12 goals whilst recording just one away clean sheet at Hartlepool back in August. Given the records of both sides you have to feel that Orient will score and if they do then they should be able to close the game out.
The odds on a home win are as you would imagine low at just 8/15 but the referee on Saturday is Thomas Parsons who has been in good form with the cards. Parsons has taken charge of 10 games in League Two this season have has given out an average of 49 booking points per game with both sides being given at least 9.5+ booking points in 90% of these fixtures. He has also dished out at least 29.5 match booking points in 9 of his 10 games, so cards look likely here.
Orient have collected at least 9.5+ booking points in 14 of their 16 home games this season, an 88% return. They have also seen 15 of 16 visitors this season collect at least one card.
Crawley have collected an average of 22.31 booking points per away fixture, collecting at least 9.5 booking points in 70% of their away fixtures. The visitors have now collected at least one card in 9 of their last 12 away matches.
Crawley are desperate for the points and despite winning mid-week at home over Rochdale, Orient still collected a card so I am not sure that both sides will just settle for a low scoring home win.
We can back an Orient win with both sides collecting at least 9.5+ booking points each and over 29.5 booking points in the match at even money with William Hill. Given Parsons performances in the League this looks a decent price.
- Leyton Orient to win, over 29.5 match booking points and both sides over 9.5 booking points each. 1/1 with William Hill.
Think Nathan tella (Burnley) is overpriced to score anytime tommorow against Luton wont be an easy game for Burnley but 4/1 to score anytime for a player that’s scored 5 in his last 3 games is decent value at Bet365