We have had some mixed results over the last few columns, but the overall return remains positive at +9.12 units, a 7.79% ROI.
Friday’s National League card presents three fixtures with strong data-led angles.
Carlisle come into their meeting with Gateshead in control of their home matches, combining low concession rates with consistent scoring. Gateshead’s away profile weakens against stronger opposition, with limited attacking output and high volumes conceded.
At the Laithwaite, Woking and Eastleigh both arrive with unreliable defensive records. Goals have been a constant feature in their recent matches, driven by steady chance creation at both ends and a lack of clean sheets.
Boston host York in a matchup where the visitors hold a clear edge. York’s attacking numbers, shot volume, and consistency against lower-ranked sides stand out, while Boston’s record against stronger teams remains modest.
Each game shows clear trends in chance creation, defensive gaps, and recent performance levels.
The numbers highlight where the advantage lies.
Carlisle Utd vs Gateshead
Friday’s National League fixture at Brunton Park sees Carlisle Utd host Gateshead, with the hosts in strong position based on both results and underlying performance.
Carlisle’s home record stands at W13-D4-L3, and they have been dominant against bottom half opposition at this venue with W8-D2-L0 and six clean sheets. They have won their last three matches and come into this on a run of W4-D1 from their last five at home, scoring two or more in each, including three or more in four.
Across the season, they average 1.67 xG and concede 1.06 xGA, producing 15.47 shots and 6.53 shots on target, while creating 21 big chances and conceding only 10.
Recent numbers maintain that level. Across the last eight, Carlisle have posted 1.39 xG and 1.02 xGA with 13.17 xPTS and three clean sheets. Their last four home matches show 0.33 xGA and just 3.8 shots in the box conceded, highlighting defensive control alongside consistent attacking output.
Gateshead arrive in better overall form with W6-D4-L2, but their away record remains a concern. They have won three of their last 13 on the road, against sides placed 24th, 13th, and eighth.
Against top half opposition away, their record is W1-D2-L8, and they have failed to score against the top five. Their away metrics show 0.82 xG and 2.21 xGA, while allowing 16.9 shots and 7.5 shots on target per game.
Carlisle control territory, limit chances, and consistently create high-quality opportunities. Gateshead struggle away against stronger sides and concede high volumes. The data supports a Carlisle win with over 1.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Carlisle win & over 1.5 goals at 3/4 with Betway
Woking vs Eastleigh
Friday’s National League clash sees Woking host Eastleigh at the Laithwaite Community Stadium, with both sides trending towards open, high-scoring matches.
Woking come into this in strong home form, unbeaten across their last six at the ground with a record of W4-D2-L0, scoring in each of those games. Clean sheets remain an issue, with just three in their last eight at home and only two across their last 14 overall.
Their season numbers show 1.48 xG and 1.58 xGA, alongside 11.11 shots and 3.89 shots on target per game, pointing to regular chances at both ends. Over the last eight matches, Woking have produced 1.44 xG and conceded 2.07 xGA, with 75% of those games going over 2.5 goals.
Eastleigh arrive in poor form, losing their last four and winning just two of their last 10. Their defensive record is one of the weakest in the league, with no clean sheet in their last 29 matches and none away from home since late September.
Despite this, they continue to find the net, scoring in seven of their last nine away games. Their away data shows 1.02 xG and 1.65 xGA, while allowing 15.2 shots and 5.4 shots on target per game.
Recent splits reinforce the same pattern. Woking’s last four home matches show 1.96 xG and 2.06 xGA, while Eastleigh’s last four away fixtures show 0.85 xG and 2.20 xGA, with high volumes conceded in the box.
Both sides create and concede at consistent levels, with Eastleigh’s defensive issues and Woking’s lack of clean sheets pointing to chances throughout. The data supports a game that clears over 2.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with BetFred
Boston Utd vs York City
Boston United vs York City takes place in the National League at the Jakemans Community Stadium on Good Friday, with the visitors arriving as the strongest side in the division.
Boston’s home record stands at W5-D6-L9, but their return against top half opposition is W1-D5-L4, with the only win coming against 12th placed Wealdstone. Recent form is also trending down, with one win in their last five.
Across the last eight, Boston have posted 1.32 xG and 1.05 xGA with six big chances created and five conceded, alongside 12.48 xPTS. They average 10.55 shots and 4.50 shots on target, which is solid but not at the level needed against elite sides.
York arrive with a dominant profile. Their away record against bottom half sides stands at W11-D0-L2, and they have won 16 of their last 20 matches. They generate 2.04 xG and concede just 0.98 xGA away, producing 16.8 shots and 7.5 shots on target. Across the last eight, York have delivered 2.69 xG, created 21 big chances, conceded just four, and recorded 17.98 xPTS.
The attacking gap is decisive. York have won 17 of 20 away xG battles and failed to score in just 7% of those matches. Their last four underline the edge, posting 3.06 xG, 14.3 shots in the box, and 12 big chances, with over 2.5 goals landing in 88%.
Boston’s weaker record against strong sides and York’s sustained attacking output point to a York City win with over 1.5 goals.
- Best Bet: York City win & over 1.5 goals at 8/11 with William Hill
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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