We returned another strong set of results at the weekend, landing two of the three selections to keep the column moving along with its excellent record across the season.
Attention now turns to a busy midweek schedule with three fixtures from across the English Football League offering strong statistical angles.
Promotion pressure sits firmly on the agenda in the Championship as Stoke City host Ipswich Town, with the visitors chasing a place in the automatic spots during the run in.
League One brings a key clash in the play off race as Stevenage face Leyton Orient at the Lamex Stadium, with both sides entering the game in sharply contrasting form.
In League Two, Gillingham meet MK Dons at Priestfield in a fixture where recent scoring patterns and attacking numbers from both teams stand out.
Stoke City vs Ipswich Town
Stoke City welcome Ipswich Town to the Bet365 Stadium on Tuesday night.
Ipswich arrive knowing the promotion race remains in their own hands. Victory here would keep the pressure on the automatic places and they still have Middlesbrough to visit Portman Road later in the run in. Their recent form is strong with 10 points from the last four league games, including a 2-0 win at Watford in their most recent away match.
Underlying numbers also support Ipswich. Across the last eight matches they average 1.90 xG and have created 13 big chances. Away from home they average 11.9 shots and 4.1 shots on target while scoring 26 goals across a W6-D4-L6 away record. Ipswich have also won the xG battle in 56.3% of away fixtures and produced 1.91 xG across the last four games.
Stoke enter this game in poor form. Over the last 11 league matches they hold a W1-D4-L6 record, scoring just eight goals and failing to score in five of those games. Their only win in the last seven home matches came against relegation threatened Oxford.
Results against stronger opposition also highlight the gap. Stoke’s record against the top four stands at W0-D1-L5 with only two goals scored and eight conceded.
Performance data at the bet365 Stadium also raises concern. Stoke average 1.12 xG and allow 0.97 xGA while producing 11.35 shots and 4.29 shots on target. They have won the xG battle in only four of 17 home matches, a rate of 23.5%.
Ipswich also hold the psychological edge with Stoke failing to score in the last three league meetings.
With stronger recent form, better attacking output and Stoke struggling badly against top sides, Ipswich look well placed to take all three points.
- Best Bet: Ipswich win at 8/11 with bet365
Stevenage vs Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient travel the short distance to the Lamex Stadium on Tuesday night to face Stevenage. The hosts are pushing for a play off place whilst Orient are in a relegation battle.
This is an important game for Stevenage as they sit just one point behind the sixth placed side with two games in hand. Their recent form is strong with four wins from their last five matches. Across the last 10 games they have lost only three times and all three defeats came away from home. At the Lamex their record stands at W9-D6-L1 with the only defeat coming against Cardiff.
The underlying numbers support that strong home record. Stevenage have produced 1.72 xG while conceding only 0.71 xGA across the last four matches and have collected nine points from 8.56 xPTS.
They allow only 3.5 shots inside the box per game and have conceded just one big chance in that run. Over the wider sample they concede only 1.94 shots on target and win the xG battle in 68.8% of their home matches.
Leyton Orient arrive with far weaker form. They have won only three of their last 16 matches and lost 10 of those games. Their away record stands at W4-D1-L12 and they concede an average of 2.06 goals per match on the road. The underlying process also highlights their defensive issues.
Across the last four matches they have produced only 0.97 xG while conceding 2.15 xGA, allowing 11 shots inside the box and five big chances.
Orient also struggle against stronger opposition. Their away record against top half sides reads W1-D1-L8. Stevenage meanwhile are unbeaten at home against teams fifth and below with a record of W9-D4-L0.
Orient hold the edge in the recent head to head with four wins in the last seven meetings, but the current form, home strength and underlying numbers all point firmly toward a Stevenage victory.
- Best Bet: Stevenage win at 5/6 with bet365
Gillingham vs MK Dons
Gillingham welcome Milton Keynes Dons to the Priestfield, in a fixture where two strong scoring trends point toward both teams finding the net.
Gillingham have been reliable going forward on home soil throughout the season. They have scored in 15 of 17 matches at Priestfield and both teams to score has landed in nine of the last 10 home fixtures. Their attacking numbers back that up.
Gillingham average 1.77 xG at home while producing 13.94 shots and 5.13 shots on target per match. They have also created 21 big chances at Priestfield.
Their home scoring record becomes even stronger against better opposition. Gillingham have scored in every home match against top half teams, showing their attack continues to produce even when the level of opposition rises.
The defensive side of their profile leaves opportunities for visiting teams. Gillingham concede 1.21 xGA at home and allow 10.81 shots along with 3.94 shots on target per match, which regularly gives opponents scoring chances.
Milton Keynes Dons arrive with one of the most consistent away scoring records in the division. They have scored in 16 of 17 away matches and conceded in 12 of those games, with their away fixtures averaging 3.06 goals.
Recent form also supports their attacking output. Across the last eight matches MK Dons have produced 1.55 xG and collected 15.4 xPTS along with 18 points. They also average 8.0 shots inside the box across that period.
Their record against lower ranked teams on the road is also strong. MK Dons are W7-D1-L0 away against sides placed 15th or lower.
With Gillingham scoring consistently at Priestfield and MK Dons scoring in almost every away match, the statistical profile strongly points toward goals at both ends.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 with bet365
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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