Last Player Standing is a betting competition where a group of people each put in a stake and predict one team to win in a competition each week.
If that team wins, they progress into the next round, if they draw or lose, they are eliminated.
Each team can only be picked once throughout the game; eg, if you pick Liverpool to win in week one, you cannot pick them again during that edition of Last Player Standing.
The goal is to be the final player left at the end of it all. The winner takes the full pot.
Midweek, Manchester City should have a comfortable victory at home when the welcome Nottingham Forest, whilst leaders Arsenal travel to the south coast to play Brighton. Bottom side Wolves welcome Liverpool, with the visitors looking to force their way into the Champions League qualification reckoning.
This week’s best Last Player Standing tip: Manchester City
Manchester City hold a clear edge over Nottingham Forest based on both process and home dominance.
City have scored 34 goals in 14 home games, 2.43 per match, while conceding just nine, 0.64 per game. They have kept seven clean sheets and have won the xG battle in 13 of 14 home fixtures, a 92.9% control rate. Their home NPxG stands at 1.74 with NPxGA at 1.16, supported by 15.31 shots and 5.77 shots on target per game.
Forest’s away profile is weaker. They concede 22 goals in 14 away matches, 1.57 per game, and score just 0.92 per match. Away NPxG is 1.23 with NPxGA at 1.34, and they have won the away xG battle in only two of 13 games.
The gap in shot volume, chance quality and territorial control is significant. City consistently dominate at home, while Forest struggle to impose themselves on the road.
The data supports a controlled home win.
MFT’s top Last Player Standing pick: Liverpool
We are yet to select Liverpool, so it makes sense to do so when they face a side bottom of the table.
Liverpool carry a clear statistical edge into their trip to Wolves.
Away from home Liverpool average 1.66 NPxG and concede just 1.01 NPxGA, one of the strongest away ratios in the league. They rank second for away xPTS and hold a positive away xG ratio above 60%, reflecting consistent control. Their away chance profile includes 7.14 shots inside the box per match and 19 big chances created, showing both volume and quality.
Wolves’ home numbers are weaker. Home NPxG stands at 1.08 with NPxGA at 1.46. They average 9.69 shots for but concede 11.23, along with 4.69 shots on target against per game. Their home xG ratio rank is 17th and xPTS rank 16th, indicating they are regularly second best on process.
Wolves have also conceded 30 goals at home, 2.14 per match, the highest in the league. Against Liverpool’s away attacking consistency, that defensive record is a concern.
The gap in chance creation, xPTS and control points toward an away victory.
Best ‘Last Player Standing’ selections ranked for Premier League gameweek 29
• Manchester City (H vs Nottingham Forest)
• Arsenal (A vs Brighton & Hove Albion)
• Liverpool (A vs Wolverhampton Wanderers)
• Leeds United (H vs Sunderland)
• Everton (H vs Burnley)
• Bournemouth (H vs Brentford)
• Fulham (H vs West Ham United)
• Aston Villa (H vs Chelsea)
• Newcastle United (H vs Manchester United)
• Tottenham Hotspur (H vs Crystal Palace)
• Chelsea (A vs Aston Villa)
• Manchester United (A vs Newcastle United)
• West Ham United (A vs Fulham)
• Brentford (A vs Bournemouth)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers (H vs Liverpool)
• Brighton & Hove Albion (H vs Arsenal)
• Nottingham Forest (A vs Manchester City)
• Burnley (A vs Everton)
• Sunderland (A vs Leeds United)
• Crystal Palace (A vs Tottenham Hotspur)
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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