MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.
The core focus sits on the Premier League, EFL, and National League, where data depth and pricing consistency support repeatable judgement. Top European leagues and major cup competitions feature when the edge is clear. Minor leagues stay out.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Nottingham Forest hold a clear edge over Burnley based on both season long and recent data. Burnley sit bottom across key metrics, including 0.77 NPxG and 1.86 NPxGA, while also conceding 16.63 shots and 5.44 shots on target per game.
Their away record is the weakest in the league and they have won 0.0% of away xG battles. Forest are not dominant but remain competitive at home with 1.24 NPxG and stronger shot volume. Burnley’s lack of attacking output and defensive vulnerability gives Forest the platform to control the game and secure the points.
PSG hold the strongest profile in the league. They have scored 61 goals from 58.3 xg and created 105 big chances, both league highs. At home they have won five of their last six, scoring 17 goals with 100% over 2.5 games.
They have not failed to score in any home match, giving them a consistent attacking floor. Defensively they have conceded just 23 goals all season and allow the lowest shot volume. Lyon arrive with a solid defensive record but their away scoring is less reliable, with 33% failed to score. PSG’s volume, chance quality and control point to a home win.
Monaco enter with strong attacking process and consistent home output. They have created 94 big chances and scored 50 goals, supported by 0.14 xg per shot, the highest in the league. At home they have won five of their last six, scoring 14 and conceding five.
They have failed to score in just 7% of home games, showing a reliable goal threat. Auxerre carry major attacking issues, failing to score in 53% of home matches and 57% away. Their xg numbers and shot volume remain low, limiting any sustained pressure. Monaco should control territory and create higher quality chances throughout.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG & Monaco to all win at 2/1 with Bet365
Aston Villa hold the stronger profile heading into this game, particularly at home where they average 1.26 NPxG and concede 1.22. Sunderland’s away numbers are weaker, producing just 1.00 NPxG while allowing 1.57 and 15.88 shots per game.
Villa generate consistent attacking volume with 13.38 shots and 4.81 on target, which should be enough to create clear chances. Sunderland have shown some short term improvement but still allow high pressure and chances. With Villa controlling more of the ball and creating higher quality opportunities, they have the edge to convert that into a home win.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG, Monaco & Villa to all win at 4/1 with Bet365
Manchester City hold the strongest recent profile in the league and enter this game with clear attacking dominance. Across the last eight they rank first for xG, NPxG and big chances, averaging 2.07 xG while producing 10.4 shots in the box.
They also win 93.3% of home xG battles, showing consistent control. Arsenal remain strong, especially defensively with 0.79 NPxGA away, but City’s attacking volume and territory give them the edge. City also create 12 big chances across the last eight, highlighting their ability to convert pressure into goals. With sustained control and higher chance quality, City are well placed to secure the win.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG, Monaco, Villa & Man City to all win at 8/1 with Unibet
Paris FC arrive with a more stable profile and better recent consistency. They are unbeaten in their last six away games, drawing five and winning one, showing resilience and structure. Metz sit bottom with just 15 points and have conceded 63 goals, overperforming xg against by +9.26, which highlights ongoing defensive issues.
They allow high shot volume and one of the highest conversion rates against at 14.29%. Metz also fail to score in 50% of home games, limiting their ability to respond. Paris FC should control phases of play, create enough chances, and exploit a defence that struggles to deal with sustained pressure.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG, Monaco, Villa, Man City & Paris FC to all win at 19/1 with Unibet
Ipswich hold a clear edge at Portman Road. They are W13-D7-L1 at home, conceding just 15 and averaging 0.71 goals against. Their process backs it up, ranking 1st for home xPTS at 26.82 with a 69.4% xG ratio and 70.5% shots on target ratio.
Middlesbrough arrive in poor form, no wins in six and just four goals scored in their last seven. They rank 21st for xPTS across the last five and are missing key players. Ipswich need 10 points for promotion and know six from the final two is key. Stronger metrics, better defence, and higher motivation support an Ipswich win.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG, Monaco, Villa, Man City, Paris FC & Ipswich to all win at 45/1 with Unibet
Everton have a solid home profile and can match Liverpool in key areas. They average 1.18 NPxG and concede just 1.38, while allowing only 4.00 shots on target per game. Across the last eight they have returned 11.17 xPTS and 13 points, showing efficient performance.
Liverpool’s away numbers are strong going forward at 1.83 xG, but they also concede 1.48 and allow consistent chances. Everton’s structure limits space and forces lower quality opportunities, while their own shot volume at 11.56 per game gives them a platform. In a tighter game state, Everton have the balance to edge the result at home.
Bet: Nottingham Forest, PSG, Monaco, Villa, Man City, Paris FC, Ipswich & Everton to all win at 145/1 with Unibet
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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