Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.
While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.
We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.
For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.
Bet 7 St Patrick's Athletic vs Derry City – Sunday 2nd August at 5pm
St Patrick's Athletic look a strong draw no bet against Derry City on Sunday, and every layer of my model points the same way.
My xG numbers have St Pat's averaging 1.70 for and just 0.95 against per game this season, while Derry sit at 1.08 for and 1.25 against.
That gap widens further in recent form, where St Pat's last four games show 1.93 xG for against 1.37 against, compared to Derry's 1.44 for and 1.73 against. Shot volume tells the same tale, St Pat's create 18.78 total shots per game to Derry's 12.86, and St Pat's are also the sharper side in the box, generating 13.8 shots inside it in their last four against Derry's 9.2.
Big chances add further weight, with St Pat's creating 2.57 per game against 1.26 conceded, while Derry are level at 1.77 both ways, showing no real cutting edge either side of the ball.
My Dixon Coles model gives St Pat's a 63.1%-win probability, and stripping the draw out of that picture pushes their true win rate up close to 80%. With attack, defence, discipline and recent form all lining up the same way, the draw is really the only obstacle standing between St Pat's and three points, and removing that risk through the draw no bet is a low variance way into this fixture.
- Bet: St Patrick's Athletic DNB
- Odds: 2/7
- 41.80 units returns 53.74
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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