Good Friday returned two winners from three, keeping the overall position strong. Easter Monday brings three fixtures with distinct profiles, each shaped by clear data trends.
Ipswich return to Portman Road chasing automatic promotion, supported by strong recent output and control in both boxes. Their ability to dominate territory and limit chances stands in contrast to Birmingham’s weak away record and lack of attacking threat.
Bolton and Stockport meet in a key clash around the play off positions. Both sides produce consistent attacking numbers and create chances at volume, while neither fully restricts opposition opportunities, which keeps the game state open.
Stevenage host Blackpool in a more controlled matchup. The hosts rely on defensive structure and low concession rates, while Blackpool’s away record highlights limited scoring output, especially against stronger sides.
Each fixture presents a different dynamic, from control to open play.
The data highlights where the edge sits.
Ipswich Town vs Birmingham City
Ipswich host Birmingham in the Championship at Portman Road on Easter Monday, with the hosts holding a clear edge and strong incentive.
Ipswich are pushing for automatic promotion and sit three points off second with two games in hand. Key players are back from injury, strengthening an already consistent side. Across the last 20 games they have taken 41 points, the best return in the division, scoring 37 and conceding 20. Their recent underlying numbers remain strong with 1.91 xG and 1.04 xGA across the last eight, alongside 13 big chances created and just seven conceded.
At home they dominate territory and chance creation. Ipswich have won 90.0% of xG battles, the highest rate in the league. That control shows in the numbers, producing 8.9 shots in the box while allowing just 4.6, which points to sustained pressure and limited opposition threat.
Birmingham arrive in poor form and with clear weaknesses away from home. Their away record stands at W5-D3-L12, scoring just 15 goals. Only one side has scored fewer away goals and only two have collected fewer away points. Across the last seven games they are W1-D1-L6 and have lost their last three away matches without scoring. Three of their five away wins have come against the bottom six, while against top 10 sides on the road they are W0-D1-L7, scoring just four.
Their recent underlying numbers reinforce that drop. Birmingham average 0.77 xG and 1.08 xGA across the last eight, creating just one big chance while conceding seven, alongside 5.8 shots in the box for and 7.0 against. Off the pitch, pressure is building on Chris Davies as results decline.
The gap in control, chance creation and attacking output is clear. Ipswich have the tools to dominate the game and take three points. Birmingham’s lack of scoring threat and recent away struggles limit the likelihood of a high scoring contest.
- Best Bet: Ipswich win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 with Coral
Bolton Wanderers vs Stockport County
Bolton host Stockport in League One on Easter Monday, with both sides involved in a high stakes clash around the play off positions.
Bolton sit third with little chance of catching second placed Cardiff, but they are only three points ahead of fifth placed Stockport. That adds importance to this game, with third and fourth securing home advantage in the play offs. The setup encourages a proactive approach from both sides rather than a cautious one.
Bolton’s home record stands at W11-D4-L4, and their matches at this venue regularly produce chances at both ends. They average 1.51 xG while conceding 1.09 xGA, supported by 13.20 shots and 4.45 shots on target per game. They have also created 16 big chances, showing consistent attacking threat, but they do allow openings which keeps games open.
Stockport arrive with a similar profile, particularly across recent matches. Over the last eight games they post 2.01 xG and 1.50 xGA, alongside 12 big chances created and eight conceded. Their last four matches are even more open, with 2.04 xG and 1.81 xGA, while both teams have scored in all four and 75% of those games have gone over 2.5 goals. Away from home, over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of matches, matching Bolton’s 58% rate at home.
Across the last eight games, the combined xG sits at 7.67 with 31 big chances created, highlighting sustained attacking output from both sides. With both teams pushing for position, creating chances at volume, and showing limited defensive control in these matchups, the setup supports over 2.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Betfred
Stevenage Borough vs Blackpool
A low event game with a clear control edge is expected when Stevenage host Blackpool in League One on Easter Monday, with the hosts better suited to dictate the tempo at the Lamex Stadium.
Stevenage’s home record stands at W11-D6-L2, built on defensive strength. No side has conceded fewer goals at home, and they have not conceded in their last two matches at this venue. While their attacking numbers are modest, only three sides have scored fewer at home, their approach is based on limiting opposition chances and controlling territory. Across the last eight games they have returned 14.9 xPTS and conceded just 0.98 xGA, showing consistent defensive reliability. They also restrict teams to low volume in key areas, with just 4.0 shots in the box conceded across recent matches.
Blackpool arrive with one of the weakest away profiles in the division. Their record stands at W3-D4-L13, scoring just 17 goals, and they have failed to score in nine of those matches. Against stronger sides, the drop off is clear. Their away record against top half teams is W0-D3-L6, scoring just four goals across those nine games, with those goals coming in only two matches. They have failed to score in seven of those nine fixtures, highlighting a consistent lack of attacking output in tougher games.
Their recent unbeaten run of four games offers limited reassurance, as three of those matches came at home. Away form remains a major issue, with no wins in their last 10 on the road. The underlying numbers reinforce this, with Blackpool conceding 2.37 xGA across the last eight matches and allowing 15 big chances, alongside 8.8 shots in the box per game.
This matchup sets up for Stevenage to control the game without needing high attacking output. Their defensive structure should limit Blackpool’s already weak chance creation, while steady pressure and territorial advantage provide enough opportunities to secure a result.
With Stevenage combining elite defensive numbers at home and strong recent xPTS, and Blackpool struggling for both goals and results away, the setup supports a Stevenage win.
- Best Bet: Stevenage win & under 4.5 goals at 21/20 with Betway
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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