Recent columns have been mixed, but the overall position remains strong. The running total sits at +21.86 units of profit, which equates to a 16.82% ROI.
Good Friday brings three EFL fixtures where the data highlights clear patterns.
Stockport vs Wycombe pairs two sides who create and concede chances at a high rate. Both show strong attacking output, with defensive numbers dropping against stronger teams, shaping an open game.
Lincoln return to Sincil Bank with a dominant home record and sustained attacking volume. Their opponents arrive with ongoing defensive issues away from home, especially against top sides, which creates a clear imbalance.
QPR vs Watford brings two teams with near identical profiles. Both produce steady xG, both concede regularly, and neither keeps many clean sheets. With Watford still chasing points, the tempo should stay high.
Across all three, the trends align. Strong chance creation, regular goal involvement, and defensive gaps remain consistent.
The data sets the platform for where the edge sits.
Stockport County vs Wycombe Wanderers
Edgeley Park hosts a League One clash on Good Friday as Stockport County face Wycombe Wanderers, with both sides bringing consistent goal trends into the fixture.
Stockport arrive in strong form at home, winning seven of their last eight and remaining unbeaten across that run. They have scored 2+ goals in six of those eight games, and across the last eight overall, six have produced at least three match goals.
Their attacking output is backed by 2.90 NP xG across the last four home games, alongside 11.5 shots in the box and 10 big chances created. However, clean sheets are rare. Stockport have kept just two in their last 12 at Edgeley Park and have only failed to score twice all season at home.
Wycombe bring a similar profile on the road. They have scored in 16 of 20 away games and across their last four away matches are producing 2.01 NP xG while conceding 1.75 NP xGA. That stretch includes 9.3 shots in the box created and 8.0 conceded, alongside five big chances allowed. Over the last eight games, 63% have gone over 2.5 goals, reflecting consistent involvement in open matches.
The matchup also highlights defensive vulnerability against stronger opposition. Stockport’s record against sides eighth and above stands at W2-D3-L7 with just one clean sheet, while Wycombe have managed only one clean sheet away against top half teams. Both sides create chances but struggle to limit them in higher quality games.
With Stockport’s strong scoring rate at home, Wycombe’s consistent goal output away, and both defences conceding regularly in these matchups, the data supports over 2.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6 with William Hill
Lincoln City vs AFC Wimbledon
Good Friday brings League One action to Sincil Bank as Lincoln City host AFC Wimbledon, with the hosts arriving in dominant form.
Lincoln have been relentless since late November, posting a W17-D5-L0 run while averaging 2.36 goals scored and just 0.73 conceded. Their home record stands at W15-D4-L1 with seven clean sheets, scoring 2+ goals in 14 of 20 and finding the net in 19 of those games.
Recent output is even stronger, with Lincoln scoring 2+ in seven of their last eight matches. The underlying numbers support that level, with 3.25 NP xG and 0.69 NP xGA across the last four at Sincil Bank, alongside 12.3 shots in the box and 8 big chances created.
AFC Wimbledon arrive with clear issues away from home. They are without a win in their last four and their last 13 away games read W2-D4-L7, scoring just 15 goals. Defensive problems stand out, with only one clean sheet in their last 14 away matches and just two all season on the road.
Against stronger opposition, those issues increase. Wimbledon have not kept a clean sheet away against top half sides and have lost all four away games against the top five, conceding 13 goals.
That defensive vulnerability aligns with recent data showing 1.92 NP xGA conceded across their last four away games, allowing 10.8 shots in the box and seven big chances. Lincoln’s attacking consistency and volume should translate into multiple goals, especially given their recent scoring rate and sustained pressure metrics.
With Lincoln combining elite form, strong home output, and consistent chance creation, and Wimbledon struggling defensively on the road, the setup supports a home win with over 1.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Lincoln to win & over 1.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
QPR vs Watford
Queens Park Rangers vs Watford takes place in the Championship at Loftus Road on Friday, with both sides bringing profiles that point towards goals at both ends.
QPR’s home matches are consistently open. Both teams to score has landed in 74% of games, with QPR scoring in 16 of 19 and failing to score just three times. They have kept only three clean sheets, two against the bottom two sides.
Their underlying numbers support that pattern, averaging 1.27 xG and 1.08 xGA, alongside 12.32 shots and 4.26 shots on target per game. They have created 18 big chances and conceded 15, which keeps both boxes active. Across the last eight games, both teams to score has landed in 50%, with chance volumes remaining steady.
Watford arrive with a similar away profile and strong recent scoring consistency. They have scored in 12 of their last 14 away games, with both teams to score landing in 68% of their away matches overall. They have kept only two clean sheets and failed to score five times across 19 games. Their output mirrors QPR, posting 1.27 xG and 1.08 xGA, with 11.5 shots and 3.5 shots on target. They have created 14 big chances and conceded 13, while continuing to produce 7.1 shots in the box per game.
There is also added incentive for the visitors. Watford still have a small chance of reaching the play offs and need three points, which should increase attacking intent and reduce any conservative approach.
With both sides regularly scoring, limited clean sheets, and consistent chance creation, the game state supports both teams to score.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 5/6 with BetFred
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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