MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.
Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.
This Sunday sees me focus on the games from Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Ireland.
One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.
Aalesund look the standout price of the weekend against Tromso. My model makes them clear favourites, producing 1.86 xG in the recent sample compared with Tromso's 1.30, while the full season numbers also favour the hosts at 1.59 against 1.45.
That translates into a 49.2% win probability, comfortably above the 27.0% implied by odds of 13/5. No fixture I have analysed this weekend shows a bigger gap between my model and the market, making this the strongest value position on the coupon.
Galway United are the value side away to Bohemian FC despite the market making the hosts favourites. Galway have produced 1.204 xG per away game in the recent sample and 1.184 across the season, figures close enough to Bohemians' home attacking numbers for my model to rate the visitors far more competitively than the odds suggest. Their win probability comes out at 21.9% in the recent window and 24.2% across the season, comfortably ahead of the 17.9% implied by odds of 23/5.
The draw stands out between Brommapojkarna and Malmo FF. Brommapojkarna's home attack has generated 1.65 xG in the recent sample and 1.47 across the season, while Malmo average 1.27 and 1.24 xG respectively on the road.
Those numbers produce a balanced matchup, with my model making the draw a 27.0% chance in the recent window and 28.6% over the full season. Both figures sit above the 27.0% implied by odds of 27/10.
Bet: Aalesund to win, Galway United to win and Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF to draw, combined at approximately 17/1 with 10Bet
Waterford FC complete the next stage of the accumulator. Their attacking numbers remain stronger than Shelbourne's, averaging 1.51 xG in the recent sample and 1.54 across the season compared with Shelbourne's 1.085 and 1.250.
That gives Waterford win probabilities of 45.5% and 42.5%, comfortably above the 34.2% implied by the live price of 192/100. Even after the market move, there still appears to be value with the home side.
Bet: Aalesund, Galway United and Waterford FC all to win, plus Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF to draw, combined at approximately 53/1 with 10Bet
The final leg is the draw between FC Midtjylland and AC Horsens. Midtjylland's attacking output of 1.29 xG is only marginally ahead of Horsens on 1.10, making this a much tighter contest than the market implies.
My model gives the draw a 30.9% chance, well above the 19.0% implied by odds of 17/4. That difference makes the stalemate the value selection to complete the accumulator.
Bet: Aalesund, Galway United and Waterford FC all to win, Brommapojkarna v Malmo FF to draw and FC Midtjylland v AC Horsens to draw, combined at approximately 275/1
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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