Midweek EFL action brings three fixtures involving teams chasing key positions in their respective divisions. Southampton host Norwich City at St Mary’s in the Championship with both clubs pushing towards the play off places and arriving in strong attacking form. Goals have been a regular feature in matches involving both sides this season.
In League Two, Walsall welcome promotion chasing Cambridge United to the Bescot Stadium. Cambridge sit third and their recent performance levels and away numbers highlight a side applying consistent pressure in the promotion race.
The final game takes place at Priestfield where Gillingham face Swindon Town. Swindon remain firmly involved in the play off battle while Gillingham matches at home have regularly produced chances at both ends.
Southampton vs Norwich
Southampton vs Norwich City takes place at St Mary’s Stadium on Wednesday night in the Championship with both teams chasing the play off positions and goals expected.
Southampton arrive in strong form after beating league leaders Coventry 2-1 on Saturday. That result maintained their push towards the top six and continued a productive spell.
Across the last 10 matches they have collected 24 points from seven wins and three draws while scoring 21 goals and conceding eight. They sit seventh in the table with a record of W15-D12-L10 and have scored 60 goals while conceding 48 across 37 league matches.
Matches involving Southampton frequently produce goals. Their games have landed over 2.5 goals in 22 of 37 fixtures, a rate of 59%. That figure rises further away from home where 70% of matches have produced at least three goals. Southampton have also failed to score in only one of 20 away matches this season which highlights the consistency of their attacking output.
Norwich arrive as one of the form teams in the division. They sit 12th in the table with a record of W15-D6-L16 and have scored 51 goals while conceding 45 across 37 matches. Recent form has been strong with eight wins and two defeats across the last 10 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding five. Across the last five matches they have scored nine goals and conceded three.
Norwich know they need a strong run to keep their play off hopes alive. Victory here would move them within six points of the top six which adds further incentive for an attacking approach.
Both teams bring strong scoring numbers into this match. Southampton have scored 60 goals this season while Norwich have scored 51. With both sides producing high scoring matches and both teams arriving in strong attacking form, the data points strongly towards another match featuring over 2.5 goals.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365
Walsall vs Cambridge Utd
Walsall host Cambridge United to the Bescot Stadium on Tuesday night with the visitors looking to strengthen their position in the promotion race.
Cambridge arrive third with 68 points from 36 matches and their recent form has been one of the strongest in the division. Across the last 20 league matches they hold a record of 13 wins, six draws and one defeat. Performance levels over the last eight matches also underline that consistency as Cambridge rank first in the league for xPTS while Walsall sit 16th across the same period.
The home and away records further support the visitors avoiding defeat. Walsall’s home record stands at seven wins, three draws and eight defeats with 19 goals scored and 21 conceded. Cambridge’s away record stands at seven wins, six draws and five defeats while scoring 22 goals and conceding 16.
Walsall’s defensive numbers also show vulnerability. They have recorded five clean sheets at home this season but none have come in the last four matches and they have produced only one clean sheet across the last 10 games. Cambridge meanwhile have scored in each of their last 10 away league matches with the last league blank coming back in mid November.
Corner data strengthens the case for the visitors. Walsall have conceded four or more corners in 15 of their 18 home matches which highlights how often opponents generate attacking pressure at the Bescot Stadium. Cambridge’s away profile shows the opposite trend as they regularly dominate the metric. They average 5.67 corners per away match and have produced four or more corners in 15 of their 18 away games.
Across those matches Cambridge have taken 102 corners while conceding only 50 which shows how consistently they control territory.
With Cambridge producing stronger recent performance data, scoring consistently on the road and generating high corner numbers away from home, Cambridge double chance, Cambridge to score and Cambridge over 3.5 corners stands out as a well supported betting angle.
- Best Bet: Cambridge double chance, Cambridge to score and Cambridge over 3.5 corners at 10/11 with Bet365
Gillingham vs Swindon Town
The Priestfield hosts Gillingham and Swindon on Tuesday night with both sides carrying strong trends for goals at both ends.
Swindon arrive sixth with 63 points from 37 matches after scoring 60 goals and conceding 45. Their recent form keeps them firmly in the promotion race with five wins, two draws and three defeats across the last 10 matches. Those fixtures produced 17 goals scored and 12 conceded while both teams to score landed in 70% of them, showing how regularly Swindon matches see goals at both ends.
Gillingham sit 16th with 45 points from 36 games. Their recent run has been difficult with only two wins in the last 10 matches and 22 goals conceded. Defensive issues remain clear across the campaign with 52 goals allowed, though they continue to find the net regularly at Priestfield.
Home and away records support the both teams to score angle. Gillingham’s home record stands at six wins, seven draws and five defeats with 24 goals scored and 28 conceded. They have failed to score only twice at home all season and have kept just three clean sheets. Their attacking output against stronger opposition is also notable as they have scored against every top half side at Priestfield.
Swindon also show strong scoring consistency away from home. Their away record stands at nine wins, two draws and seven defeats with 28 goals scored and 24 conceded. Crucially they have failed to score only twice on the road and one of those matches came against second placed Milton Keynes Dons.
Underlying performance numbers reinforce the expectation of chances for both sides. Across the last eight matches Gillingham average 1.28 xG and 1.24 xGA while producing 8.1 shots inside the box per game. Swindon average 1.40 xG and 1.20 xGA with 6.8 shots inside the box and 10 big chances created.
With Swindon scoring consistently away and Gillingham regularly involved in open home matches, both teams to score looks the standout betting angle.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 8/11 with Betfred
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware