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Yesterday was another profitable day with Boy In The Bar winning at odds of 9/2, but was tipped up at 11/2. Today looks a very tough day even though there are plenty of race cards to look into. The race below is the only one which caught my eye.
BACK TO BRUSSELS definitely looks overpriced in this race, especially if the ground gets slightly softer than what it is currently described as (Good To Yielding).
This horse has won on heavy ground and has ran well on soft ground before, so the weather forecast doesn't bother me. The trainer, Fozzy Stack, said: “She handled the track very well when she was second there (Tipperary) two starts back, so hopefully she can run well again. She doesn't mind getting her toe in, but I don't know if she'd want it very soft so we'll see.” Even though Fozzy seems slightly worried about the ground if it gets very testing, I think she'll be fine if the ground gets that way, as she has won on heavy ground previously.
She races against Erosandpsyche again, who she was a neck behind when they met at this track at the back end of June. On that day, Back To Brussels was giving away 5lbs to the winner, whereas today they meet on 9lb better terms in the favour of the selection, which is increased to 14lbs as Joey Sheridan takes off a further 5lbs with his claim. If the selection can't reverse the form with that horse then it would be very surprising as a 14lb swing in the weights is a huge pull, especially when the winning margin was only a neck. In terms of the betting market, Erosandpsyche is nearly half the price of Back To Brussels, which seems a little strange. Indigo Balance is a short priced favourite, and people who are backing her must be putting it down to the fact that this is seen as a drop in class. I personally could not back her at any odds, nevermind odds of 6/4 or similar as she hasn't shown much at all, and was behind Back To Brussels in a Naas listed race. Her price seems a little wacky in my opinion.
This is a competitive race, as you'd expect with a race of this nature in Ireland. However, at the prices, I think Back To Brussels offers a cracking each way price.
12:00 Newton Abbot - Race: 1
12:10 Hamilton - Race: 1
12:20 Roscommon - Race: 1