There was nothing special about the performance of Special Ghaiyatth. In fact, it was quite disgusting how much he drifted through the market and tailed off in last place after leading for most of the race. These kinds of drifts are really pushing me away from the sport, you know your fate hours before the race even takes place.
Luke Morris didn't go down without a fight on the other selection, who was an even bigger drifter. That horse touched 16/1, but Luke tried to get the lead and dictate the race. He struggled to get to the front until quite late on, but the horse looked all over the place.
Keep On Dreaming 7/1 (1pt) – Punchestown 2.30
Based on ratings and things achieved in races over rules, Willitgoahead would be the safest option. He was third at Cheltenham last year and second to It's On The Line at Down Royal on Boxing Day. However, he is known for throwing up some stinking runs.
Fountain House will also be popular in the market. He is a serial winner, but he was thumped in the Down Royal Race. As a result, I wanted to take a chance on E Bolger's Keep On Dreaming.
Keep On Dreaming was meant to run in this race last year, but the race was full, and he didn't manage to get a run from the reserves. It's interesting how they've come back for the same race 12 months on, and despite not having the best of form from his runs in Hunter Chases, you can't rule him out due to the trainer. Bolger is the master of the X-country horse; he's won many races at Punchestown and Cheltenham, so his young horse could easily find the improvement required.
Khrisma 11/2 (1pt) – Punchestown 3.40
Obviously, Harry Cobden is the new JP McManus man for next season, so he is getting more rides in these colours. In my opinion, I'd rather see Nico on Khrisma today, as I think he's been riding woefully in the last month.
However, despite the jockey, I think Khrisma has a very solid chance in a big field handicap. It's hard to overlook some of these out-of-form Irish horses, as they will be primed for a big run at this Punchestown festival. I'd be surprised if there is a horse better handicapped than Khrisma, who finished second at this meeting last year in a novice hurdle.
The winner of the Novice hurdle has since improved plenty and was third behind Lossiemouth on his most recent effort. If you can take that form literally, Khrisma could be at least 15lbs ahead of the handicapper.
I think she would have won at Kelso last time out if she hadn't made a mess of one of the final hurdles. She landed awkwardly, and Nico decided to pull her up, but she was going very strongly when carrying 12st. Her win the time before has been franked, as she beat Charisma Cat quite comfortably, and that horse has won a Class 1 handicap and run well in a Grade 1 at Aintree.
GambleAware
Morning lads. If your two win today might be worth a look of my bets to invest a little of your profit.
Tupero 4.05 Southwell 3/1
Really sweet on this filly today. Form franked by the winner, Free Pic, going in again back at this track just last week. The money is for Jack Andrea to land the hat-trick and their possibly could be more to come. Seems to have benefited from switching yards. But I think Tupero can run him very close today . I’ve just went a half point on the win.
There’s another runner for the James Owen trend that everyone has been following for the last 16 months or so now. I’ve put up the stats on this site a few times, I have no idea if anyone has even seen it tbh. It looks like no one reads this site anymore as I haven’t seen another punter comment on here in about a year. Unless I’m posting in the wrong place?? It doesn’t look like Rizzle and Cairnzy has spotted this trend as I check in on the days these runners pop up recently to see if the lad are backing them, but nothing unfortunately.
Anything you see from this yard that has headgear on for the first time you need to take a close look. You can basically ignore 99% of the yards other runners. Just concentrate on these. In case there are actually people reading this site, and they are fairly new to horse racing, you’ll see V¹, B¹, P¹ etc, next to the horses name which indicates the horse wearing Visor, Blinkers, Cheekpieces, for the first time.
The strike rate for following this trend is not far off 30%. It has been almost getting on ridiculous how they keep winning, and you rarely see any at really short odds.
Only last week the yard sent out three runners that fell into this trend of headgear on for the first time. And every single one of them won. Last week was by far the best week for this following. I know of several guys having their accounts closed last week because of backing these. The winners last week…
Market House 10/3 ( backed into 15/8)
Lucky Sevens 10/1
Naval Tribute 11-2 ( backed into 9-4)
Moonhill Lass is the first one from the trend to pop up since Naval Tribute on Thursday. Cheekpieces have actually been on this horse before, only once, and this was when trained across the water by Alan McIntyre. Some punters won’t include this into the trend because of this. But, because it’s the first time James Owen has put them on the filly, and he is the master of knowing what and when to put on his horses, I include these into the trend.
Moonhill Lass is a maiden after 23 runs which will scare most off and that’s understandable. I am almost always on for 1.5 max stakes on these bets but I’ve only backed it for 0.5 win today at 3s. I’ve backed two runners today which is quite rare for me so I’m happy to spread the risk. In a way it’s actually better if this one gets beat today as the bookies could just decide to tighten up the prices on this trend. I keep saying that but they never seem to! 🤩
Just quickly a few of the horses that have won from this trend over the last year and a half..
Laravie 15/2, Stratford.
Colinski 11/2, Lingfield
Kilma 16/1, Yarmouth
My Gift To You 4-1, Worcester
Penelope Valentine 5/2 , Wolverhampton
Captain Parma 4/1, Chelmsford
Naval Tribute 9/1 Kempton (P¹)
Naval Tribute, Beverley 9/4 ( V¹)
Lucky Sevens 10/1 Yarmouth
****All above bets are just SP prices. Many were available at far bigger. *****
Good luck today lads. I’ve probably wasted my time once again as I doubt you will even bother reading any comments but I’ll be cheering for your runners as always. Kind regards, CJ.