I'm posting this one early, as I'm a little busy later on. My selection on Tuesday hasn't run yet, but I will return with an update.
The Other Mozzie 11/1 (1pt) – Perth 3.40
My selection, The Other Mozzie, has to bounce back to form to win this. Based on his handicap mark and this drop in grade, he has every chance of getting the win.
Normally, I would be put off backing a horse that leaves a yard like Gavin Cromwell's. However, the owner has pumped some serious money into the NH game, and he clearly believed this lad had plenty to give. I think the main factor in moving the horse was that he wanted runners in the UK rather than Ireland. He is still only a seven-year-old, and based on his form when in Ireland, he is very capable of winning races like this.
This time last year, he won the Scottish Champion Chase at Ayr off the same handicap mark he runs off today. He came to Ayr on the back of a poor effort at Cheltenham, which he shares this year. His first run for Laura Morgan was at Cheltenham, where he only got to the third fence, at which he fell. That is not an ideal start, but if his confidence hasn't been knocked, the drop in class should help a lot.
The ground isn't going to be a problem, and getting Harry Cobden in the saddle over the injured Brian Hughes is a good replacement.
Of the other horses, I think they're all in the grips of the handicapper. Whereas, my selection is on a good mark, but is out of form. I'll take my chances.
Maximum Offers 7/4 (1pt) – Ludlow 3.00
It's been quite expensive to follow Maximum Offers, both over fences and hurdles. He has shown promise and has won over both types of obstacles, but it's not been pretty.
Last time out, he got the job done at odds of 4/6F, but did it easily. I think that's a good performance, even though it was a three-runner race, as it would have been a good confidence booster. We know he stays the trip of three miles, and I think the decision to revert to hurdles isn't a bad idea.
His form over hurdles was decent, especially the win over Absolutely Doyen. I don't know how much you can read into that form line, as it was over two miles, but the runner-up has improved 22lbs since that defeat.
I believe this trip is what suits him best, and I do think it is a fight between my fancy and The Egyptian Ginge.
GambleAware