Khafiz 5/1 – Haydock 2.35
I think one of the best up-and-coming yards in the last few years has been Edward Bethell's. I think he works magic with the horses he brings to his yard, so I believe Khafiz is worth a shot in this seven-furlong race at Haydock.
When this horse was previously with Roger Varian, he was a decent handicapper. He hasn't had a run since the end of last season, but he is making his stable debut when they're in tremendous form.
His form from his last run in October puts him in with a solid chance in today's race. The winner has gone on to finish second in the Lincoln and then fifth in a competitive Newbury Class 2 last weekend.
I think his running style should suit this track, as he likes to race prominently.
Cavolo Nero 5/2 – Haydock 3.10
My only concern with tipping Cavolo Nero for the Lucky 15 is his tendency to fall out of the stalls. He instantly puts himself on the back foot, and around Hayock, it's not a position you want to be in.
However, if he does break on terms, I think he is the one to beat. He is against some fairly exposed horses, and the ones that aren't exposed do have questions to answer. I think Ted Le Saux is one who will be fancied in the market, but he had an irregular heartbeat last time out when beaten as the 2/5F. He is also by Cracksman, so the ground is likely too quick for him.
The two recent runs under his belt should give him the fitness edge over many. The trip and ground are both fine.
Thai Ginger 5/2 – Ripon 1.40
In what appears to be a fairly ordinary juvenile race, I thought taking a chance on the 100,000gns purchase was the play.
Adrian Keatley can train a two-year-old and can have them ready first time out, so backing this one blind doesn't bother me. He has a good pedigree to be a precocious juvenile. He is the first foal out of the 2021 Royal Ascot winner, Quick Suzy. Also, he is by leading sire No Nay Never, so there's every chance he'll be quick off the mark and be too good for the others.
The horses who have experience haven't shown a great deal, and the other debut runners don't have an appealing pedigree.
Fivethousandtoone 8/1 – Leicester 2.05
From the very bottom of the weights, I think it's hard not to give a chance to Fivethousandtoone, who is clearly a better horse on the all-weather, but has a reduced mark on turf.
I don't think my selection would be as appealing if Harry Vigors weren't in the saddle. The rider takes off 7lbs, and that puts the horse on a racing weight of 8st. From a weight this low, and based on his current form on the AW, he has to be in with a solid chance. He ran well on the turf in some big handicaps last season, so I think he will go close.
GambleAware