Cairnzy's runner at Nottingham didn't cover herself in glory.
She was prominent throughout the race, but as soon as she came under pressure from Hollie Doyle, she went backwards extremely quickly. The trainer has come out and said that the return to turf didn't suit, so make of that what you will. I think the ground might have been too quick for her, as she did win on heavy ground on her debut.
Special Ghaiyyath 3/1 (1pt) – Bath 4.30
I was very close to going with the favourite in this race, but when I gave the race one last look, I thought Special Ghaiyyath was the one to be on.
Aspull could easily be on a good mark, but the trainer's form and the fact that he is returning from a 234-day absence are concerning. Candonomore is exposed, and despite running well last time out, I think he is prone to an improver. That led me to Special Ghaiyyath, who is a dual winner on turf from five attempts, and is making his stable debut for Peter Charalambous & J Clutterbuck.
There is a slight concern with my selection, but that's because he has left the Charlie Johnston yard and has also left James Tate's stable. But, if you're willing to overlook that, like I am, I thought he could easily be too good for this fairly ordinary Class 4 field.
Special Ghaiyyath has solid pieces of form from last year when he last raced on turf. The win at Haydock has seen the form boosted by the pair of runner-up horses (dead-heated for second). Mezcala recently won a Class 2 at Doncaster and is now rated 93. The other runner-up won at Southwell and is now rated 87.
My fancy is proven at this grade, and I think his handicap mark is still a workable one. The ground should be fine for him, and he drew in stall 3, which should work out nicely considering he is a frontrunner.
Favourite Friend 3/1 (1pt) – Wolverhampton 8.00
I can see why the early market prices aren't favourable to Favourite Friend, despite being trained by the handicapper hustler Sir Mark Prescott.
Usually, in a race like this on a horse's handicap debut from this yard, they are smashed in the betting and are very hard to back as they are so short. This is not the case with Favourite Friend, which is a tad concerning, but his four runs prior to this handicap debut have been terrible.
However, he is going up in trip, and when this happens for Sir Mark Prescott, they usually turn the form around. This horse has a good pedigree for staying races, so a mark of 46 (3lbs out of the handicap) is very workable. He is related to some smart stayers, and at the prices, I think he is worth a chance.
GambleAware