I think I can count myself as lucky and unlucky at the same time based on Monday's results.
Wolfburg deserved to win, but the jockey didn't do him any favours. The h0rse did jump badly at the start of the race, so fair play to Patrick Wadge to get him into the race and jumping nicely after the halfway point. My problem with the ride was that he went four wide throughout the whole race, and given that the horse only won in a photo finish, it should have been easier. The horse travelled at least an extra furlong compared to the runner-up.
Looking Splendid did brilliantly, and was unlucky to bump into a horse as well-handicapped on older pieces of form. The winner did have money on him; he was backed into 9/2 from double-figure odds throughout the day, and bounced back to form after not showing it the last couple of races.
I Ain't Your Mate 10/3 (1pt) – Ffos Las 6.42
Yes, we're back again on a Christian Williams horse, after I've slated the yard for non-triers on multiple occasions this season. I tell myself I'm going to avoid the yard, as you can never know when they are going to be firing, but I did back this horse last time out, and said that when the money is down, that's when to give him another chance.
It turns out that the early price of 16/1 didn't last very long, and there has been a decent amount of money to put him into favourite. It's not a surprise that the market has formed in this way, as he is going up to three miles, which should suit.
His PTP form is very good. He was second, by a neck, to El Cairos. That horse was the ante-post favourite for the Supreme for most of the season. On his other PTP start, he finished six lengths behind a horse who is now rated 130 over fences. Based on those two pieces of form, he has to be well ahead of his current handicap mark of 98.
Last time out, he was held up and never put in the race. It didn't come as a shock, as he was very weak in the market at Hereford, and that was his first start in over 300 days. It's strange that he hasn't been seen since the start of January, but the money which has arrived is normally a big indicator, especially for this owner who loves a gamble.
This race is probably stronger than the race last time out. Esperti is in good form, and I think Bataillon can win races like this, and he was a tip for us on his previous start. Keep monitoring the market.
GambleAware