What is the World Cup model and how does it work?
This article forms part of an ongoing series built around a probability model created specifically for the 2026 World Cup. The model simulates the tournament 100,000 times using a blended methodology: outright winner odds (70%), qualifying points per game adjusted for confederation strength (10%), cumulative expected goal difference from matches already played (10%), and a geography adjustment that boosts South American teams by 10%, host nations by 15.5%, and reduces European teams by 5% to reflect historical trends at World Cups held in the Americas.
For every simulation the model calculates the probability of each team reaching the Round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, final and winning the tournament. Those probabilities are then compared with the implied probabilities from the best available bookmaker prices. Where the model probability exceeds the market probability, value exists.
This version includes every group-stage match, updated Matchday 3 prices and the now almost-complete knockout bracket, making it the strongest edition of the model so far.
Previous articles in the series:
• The original model before a ball was kicked – Explains what the model is and how it works
• What changed after Matchday 1 – How the model changed its output once the WC started
• Matchday 2 update – Model gives the best bets to take and avoid as the tournament progresses
• Why England, France and Spain are too short – Why these were too short to back in the betting market
• Why Brazil are one of the worst outright bets – Explain why to avoid backing Brazil on the outright
• World Cup dark horses – Which teams the model suggests could go well
Previous World Cup recommendations – Still going strong
Four recommendations from the previous update have strengthened as the tournament has progressed.
Argentina to reach the semi-final remains the standout bet. The model now gives Lionel Scaloni's side a 66.6% chance of reaching the last four compared with a market-implied 45.5%, increasing the edge to 21.1 percentage points. Their projected route remains the most favourable of any leading contender, making this the strongest recommendation in the model.
England to reach the semi-final has also improved. Portugal's position in the draw has removed a potential early obstacle, while England's dominant win over Croatia lifted their cumulative xGD to +3.69. The model now gives England a 55.5% chance of reaching the semi-finals against a market probability of 37.0%.
USA to reach the quarter-finals remains firmly in value territory despite the odds shortening. Two wins from two have strengthened their position and the projected knockout path continues to look favourable.
Argentina to win the World Cup remains the best outright recommendation. The model gives them a 20.7% chance compared with a market-implied 14.3%, making them the only outright bet that has remained a value recommendation throughout every update.
New World Cup value bets
The updated model has produced several new opportunities now that the knockout bracket is almost fully confirmed.
Argentina to reach the final is the strongest new recommendation. The model gives them a 38.2% chance of reaching the final compared with a market-implied 26.7%, creating an edge of 11.5 percentage points. Anyone already backing Argentina to reach the semi-final has another attractive option at a bigger price.
Spain have also moved into value territory. Their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia lifted their cumulative xGD to +4.06, the highest of any team in the tournament, and the model now gives them a 57.8% chance of reaching the semi-finals against a market probability of 47.4%.
The Round of 16 qualification markets also contain several shorter-priced bets where the model believes the market is significantly underestimating the likelihood of progression. Germany, Canada, Portugal, Colombia and Norway all carry double-digit edges despite trading at relatively short odds. The returns are smaller, but the probabilities suggest they remain worthwhile additions.
Previous World Cup avoids – The situation has changed
Not every recommendation from the previous update still applies.
Egypt to reach the Round of 16 was previously the clearest lay in the dataset. Their victory over New Zealand, combined with significant market movement, has brought the model into line with bookmaker pricing. The model now gives Egypt a 44.3% chance of qualifying compared with a market probability of 44.4%. There is no longer an edge either way.
Uruguay have also moved much closer to fair value. Their cumulative xGD of +2.50 has improved the model's view, while the market has drifted from 13/20 to 11/4. They remain a slight avoid, but nothing like the strong lay identified in the previous update.
Brazil remain unchanged. Their projected knockout route is still one of the toughest in the tournament and the model continues to rate them well below the market. At 9/1 they remain one of the weakest outright bets available.
New World Cup bets to avoid
The updated model also highlights several markets where the bookmakers appear significantly more optimistic than the underlying numbers.
Bosnia and Herzegovina to reach the Round of 16 is the clearest example. Priced at 7/5, the market implies a 41.7% chance of qualification. The model gives them just 2.6%. Even if Bosnia and Herzegovina beat Qatar, they remain dependent on several other results going their way.
South Korea also rate as overpriced. The market implies a 45.5% chance of reaching the Round of 16 at 6/5, while the model makes that probability just 20.9%. They remain favourites against South Africa, but not to the extent current prices suggest.
Japan are another side the market appears to overrate. The odds imply a 51.2% chance of qualification, yet the model gives them only 33.8%. Their final group match against Sweden is considerably more competitive than current prices indicate.
Belgium's outstanding underlying numbers have attracted plenty of support, but their likely knockout route remains extremely difficult. The market gives Belgium a 26.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals compared with the model's 12.7%, largely because a probable meeting with Argentina awaits in the Round of 16.
Switzerland face a similar problem. Their tournament performances have been excellent, but a likely Round of 16 tie with Portugal makes the path far tougher than the market reflects. The model gives them an 18.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals against a market probability of 33.3%.
Norway complete the list. Whether they win Group I or finish runners-up, they are likely to meet either Germany or Brazil immediately after the group stage. The market implies an 18.2% chance of reaching the semi-finals, while the model makes it only 8.8%.
The clearest picture yet on the World Cup
With every group-stage match now played, Matchday 3 prices available and the knockout bracket almost fully confirmed, this is the strongest version of the model so far.
Argentina remain the standout team across multiple markets. Their favourable route, geography advantage and consistently strong underlying numbers continue to produce the biggest betting edges in the tournament. England remain excellent value to reach the semi-finals, while Spain's outstanding xGD has pushed them firmly into the value category after two dominant performances.
The avoid list tells an equally important story. Several teams have been priced on reputation rather than probability, while others face knockout paths far tougher than the market appears to recognise.
As always, the objective is not to predict certainty but to identify value. A team with a 60% probability still fails four times out of 10. Over time, consistently backing prices where the model probability exceeds the market probability is the strategy the model is designed to identify.
The strongest recommendation remains unchanged.
- Recommended bet: Argentina to reach the semi-final at 6/5.
No other market currently offers a bigger edge between the model and the bookmakers.
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
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